23/08/2023
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The mathematical vision of Bangladeshi economist Dr Saim Amir Faisal
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Published: Thu 24 Mar 2022, 12:12 PM
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Investing is not gambling; there is no room for emotional vulnerability in investment decisions. It is a measured and calculated quantitative and logic-driven investment decision. The stock, commodity, forex and crypto markets are prone to sensational gains and shocking losses. The role of an effective quantitative and value-based trader is to offset these hyperbolic losses with stable, respectable and sustained gains in value-based investments, with active hedging strategies.
This is a reminder of the no-nonsense approach to value-based trading, be it day trading stocks, digital assets (such as cryptos, NFTs), and/or forex and commodity. With a strong blend of technical and fundamental analysis intertwined with a disciplined stop-loss strategy, it has been shown that profits can be maximised and losses can be minimised. Dr Saim Amir Faisal reiterates that fundamental and technical analysis are interdependent, as his value-based investment and trading strategies have reaped tremendous rewards.
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Dr Faisal is an economist by profession, a mathematician, an investor, and a trader in practice, who has mastered the craft of quantitative and value-based trading over the years. Back in his home country, Bangladesh, he is the owner of several business operations, including a pharmaceuticals factory and a manufacturing plant that sells consumer and household products, and has over 100+ licensed products in his product portfolio.
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Dr Faisal has a PhD in financial economics from UCL in the United Kingdom. He also holds an MPhil Degree in financial economics, a master’s degree in economics and policy both from UCL, along with an undergraduate degree in BSc Economics from the University of Nottingham.
Dr Faisal started day trading in equity, forex and commodity markets from his undergraduate dorm room. He currently has long positions in Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Berkshire Hathaway, Amazon, NVIDIA, Abbott Laboratories, Tencent, Alibaba, Tesla, Home Depot, Etsy, Thermo Fisher, UnitedHealth Group, HCA Healthcare, LVMH Louis Vuitton, Adobe, TSMC, BlackRock, SVB Financial Group, PayPal, Salesforce, JD.com, Hermes, Intel, Canadian Pacific Railway and VISA. Over the past two years alone, he has gained over 500 per cent from his investments in these mentioned equities. From his minor savings as a college student, he along with a couple of his friends, each made a $3500 investment in Bitcoin in 2012. He cashed out with $1.2 million before reinvesting a bulk of his earnings in US equities. He also made further investments in Ethereum and other digital assets, including a host of NFTs. However, Dr Faisal has reiterated that investments in digital assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, can lead to detrimental losses. He is a firm believer of the infrastructure of the alternate financial system in aiding greater financial mobility, however, he believes that 95 per cent of all existing cryptocurrencies will be wiped out in the next 10 years. He wouldn’t advise anyone to buy and hold any cryptocurrency, barring two or three.
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At present, Dr Faisal only makes investments in stocks, commodities and the forex markets from his earnings outside of Bangladesh. According to Dr Faisal, the greatest intrinsic gift of a trader is the strength of his fundamental analysis, the hype factor and price sensitivity are both indeed crucial, especially for short-term traders, however, one has to be able to judge the strength of the business first and foremost. There is absolutely no room for emotion or media noise.
Trading is a complex and highly volatile mathematical exercise and every second counts, says Dr Faisal. Dr Faisal does quantitative trading and thereby continuously tests various transitive hypotheses to eliminate the prospect of large scale losses. He states that there is no loyalty in investment decisions, there is only loyalty to wealth creation.
As an economist and mathematician, his skills are helping him develop value-based investment strategies and reduce the possibilities of large scale losses - restricted to a maximum of two to five per cent loss per trade. Dr Faisal does mathematical modelling, and he has written about 5000 lines of codes that he designed while undertaking his PhD at UCL. He has now replicated his knowledge in his academia into day trading, giving him an upper hand in technical and fundamental analysis.
Dr Faisal explained that before making any trade, he first conducts a detailed forensic analysis, both from the business viewpoint as well as the technical viewpoint checking all the possible forecasting outcomes before deciding which trading position to undertake. Using an analogy, he explained that this is similar to a medical autopsy but preceded by an X-Ray and MRI for starters. Using algorithms, Dr Faisal can analyse multiple strategies and backtest to see which has a higher chance of winning and this gives him leverage.
Dr Faisal says his dream is to be able to help the Bangladeshi diaspora, particularly in the UAE and in the GCC, to invest in sound and secure equities in global financial markets, with active hedging strategies, to maximise profits and minimise losses, to provide a vehicle for wealth creation. He reiterates that savings will not ensure wealth creation, investing will.
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Dr Faisal stressed that Bangladeshi labour workers in the UAE and the Gulf work tirelessly to ensure a means of livelihood for themselves and their families back home. He stated that it is within his duties to ensure they know and understand that sound investment vehicles exist for wealth creation and that financial literacy is of paramount importance. Through strong fundamental analysis, investing in some of the greatest businesses in the world, the Bangladeshi diaspora can be a part of this wealth creation journey. The remittance potential, or the repatriation of earnings by Bangladeshis living outside of Bangladesh, can exponentially increase. Approximately 1 million Bangladeshis are living in the UAE and approximately five million in the GCC — Dr Faisal wants to make every labour worker aware of these wealth-creating opportunities. Dr Faisal dreams that every Bangladeshi worker in the GCC lives with economic dignity and greater financial security.
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