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Macwood Capital, 71-75 SHELTON Street, London (2026)

06/10/2026

Suppliers raised remodeler materials prices by an average of 6.7% since March. 74% of remodelers reported hikes. If the price book doesn't move, that increase comes straight out of margin on every job already sold.

Example: $12,000 HVAC install, equipment 35% of price. Supplier raises equipment 7%. That's $294 of cost added per job. The right price raise isn't 7%, it's about 3.5% to $12,420 to hold a 30% margin. Skip it on $10M of sales with $3.5M in equipment and that's $245,000 a year walking out the door.

Three rules for the price book:

Update within 5 business days of any supplier notice of 3% or more.
Quotes good for 14 days. After that, hold the price only with a deposit.
Jobs more than 60 days from signing to install: ask a lawyer about an escalation clause.

DM "REPRICE" and Macwood will send the repricing playbook.

06/10/2026

The injector who brings in the most revenue can be the least profitable provider in the building.

Illustrative example (Macwood math):

Injector A: $100,000/month revenue, 38% product cost, 30% commission on gross. Contribution: 32%, $32,000/month.

Injector B: $75,000/month, 22% product cost, $18,750 of pay. Contribution: 53%, $39,750/month.

B earns $7,750 more profit on $25,000 less revenue. A commission on gross revenue pays for volume, not margin.

No independent provider pay benchmark exists. A software vendor puts provider pay in the low-to-mid 30% of service revenue with total labor under 55%. A consultant puts it at 18% to 25% of injector revenue. Design pay from the location's own margin math, not from a copied percentage.

The client-attachment risk, worked out: $40,000/month of provider revenue, 25% product cost, 30% commission, 30% of clients follow on exit. Revenue at risk: $144,000/year. Contribution at risk at 45%: $64,800. Replacement cost at 21% of annual pay: $30,240. Year-one exposure: about $95,040. One provider owning a large book is a concentration risk, not a sign of strength.

The play:

Set the labor budget first. Provider pay near 30% of treatment revenue at plan, total labor under 55%. Then test each provider's contribution after product cost. Rank by contribution, not by revenue.

Hybrid pay structure. Base covering 35% to 40% of plan pay, plus a variable tied to revenue per clinical hour and rebook rate, with product use above 25% netted out of the variable. Pay follows margin, not top-line.

12-month retention bonus. 3% of revenue accrued, paid on the anniversary. If they leave early, it doesn't vest. Cheap insurance against the $95,000 exit exposure.

Client ownership sits with the practice. Bookings, CRM, and follow-up in its systems, not the provider's phone. Every client sees at least two providers within 6 months. Breaks the one-injector attachment before it forms.

A health care attorney reviews commission rules for medical services and any non-solicit or non-compete language before any of this ships. Rules vary by state.

Targets: no provider above 35% of location revenue, every provider above 40% contribution.

DM "PROVIDER" and Macwood will send the pay-design breakdown.

05/10/2026

Training one apprentice costs $7,000 to $23,000 before it pays off. The typical employer in a federal study still came out ahead by $1.44 for every dollar in.

Yearly turnover in HVAC, plumbing and electrical runs 16 to 21%. Replace a $60,000 tech at 21% of pay and that's $12,600 gone. A referral bonus of $2,500 paid half at 90 days, half at 12 months is less than a quarter of the replacement cost.

One contractor with 200 employees runs a 15-week academy, six students at a time, $10,000 to $15,000 each. Over 90% stay. Warranty callbacks cut in half.

Start small. One entry role, one cohort of 4 to 6, one paid mentor. The mentor's time is a real cost, not a favor.

DM "PIPELINE" and Macwood will send the cohort plan.

05/10/2026

A Google search lead for roofing and gutters benchmarks at $228.15. Home services overall benchmarks at $90.92. The 2026 Top 500 replacement contractors report a median cost per issued lead of $396, and 39% pay $500 or more. Neither number says which channel actually works.

Why cost per lead misleads: the median Top 500 average job is $16,374. At a 10% marketing ceiling, that's $1,637 of allowable spend per sold job. Breakeven = cost per lead divided by that ceiling. $90.92 home services needs 5.6% of leads to sell. $228.15 roofing search needs 13.9%, about 1 in 7. $396 Top 500 issued lead needs 24.2%, about 1 in 4. Roofing search only pays if 1 in 7 leads sells.

Where owners say work comes from (multi-select, Jobber 2026): referrals and repeat 59%, Facebook 32%, local networking 25%, Google Search 20%, Local Services Ads 19%, lead-gen sites 16%. That's share of owners naming the source, not share of lead volume. Referrals can't be bought on demand, so paid channels set the growth rate. The only reliable number is the one logged in-house.

The play:

Tag every lead by source at first contact and log five stages: lead, booked, run, quoted, sold. If source is blank on more than 20% of leads, the data isn't usable yet.

Weekly, compute spend divided by sold jobs per channel on an 8-week rolling window. Track cost per booked appointment alongside, so a channel with cheap leads that don't book shows up before the quarter ends.

Set the ceiling from the actual average job. Start at 10%, lower it if margin is thin. $16,374 job at 10% = $1,637 cap. $8,000 job at 10% = $800 cap. The benchmarks mean nothing until the owner's own job size is in the formula.

Cut budget 25% on any channel above the ceiling with at least 10 sold jobs. Add 25% to any channel below 70% of the ceiling. Hold 10% of budget for one new test per quarter.

Two breakpoints where the numbers lie: untracked phone calls (install call tracking on every ad channel and every website number) and crediting brand search for jobs another channel actually created (if a buyer saw a Facebook ad then Googled the company name, that sale belongs to Facebook). Fix both before trusting the scorecard.

Good looks like: blended marketing 8% to 10% of revenue, no single channel above 50% of paid spend, cost per sold job inside the ceiling across the top three channels.

DM "SOLD" and Macwood will send the full channel scorecard.

05/10/2026

One concession cuts the buyer's monthly payment by $410. The other cuts it by $154. Nearly the same spend from the builder. Example on a $450,000 home.

Baseline: 66% of builders used sales incentives in September 2026, 38% cut prices (average 6%, six months running). D.R. Horton's cancellation rate hit 20% in fiscal Q3, up from 17%, called "still largely qualification." The payment is what blocks the sale.

Per $1,000 the builder spends, the buyer's monthly payment drops by: $5.70 on a price cut, $16 on a permanent buydown, $55 on a 2-1 buydown (year one only). Stated: $450,000 home, 90% loan, 30 years, 6.5% market rate, $2,560 baseline.

Four options, 20% margin, $360,000 cost:

2-1 buydown (year 1 at 4.5%, year 2 at 5.5%): costs $9,200 (2.0% of price). Buyer pays $2,052 year 1, $2,300 year 2. Margin after: 18.3%.

Permanent buydown to 5.5%: costs $16,200 (3.6%). Buyer pays $2,300. Margin after: 17.0%.

6% price cut: costs $27,000. Buyer pays $2,406, saves $154. Margin after: 14.9%.

Permanent buydown to 4.9% (1.6 points): costs $25,920 (5.8%). Buyer pays $2,149, saves $410. Margin after: 15.1%.

For nearly equal spend, the buydown moves the payment 2.7x more than the price cut.

The play:

Set the ceiling from a margin floor. At 15% floor on $360,000 cost, minimum net price is $423,529, so the concession ceiling is $26,471 (5.9% of price). Above it needs owner sign-off.

Diagnose the objection first: payment or qualification, waiting for lower rates, or price vs comparable homes.

Match the tool. Payment or qualification: permanent buydown (confirm with the lender how the qualifying rate is set). Waiting for lower rates: 2-1 buydown plus a refinance plan. Price cuts only for completed homes past 60 to 90 days, or homes priced above comps.

Quote every option as a monthly payment with a 14-day expiry. Never stack a buydown, closing credit, and upgrades on one buyer.

Track weekly: concession as a percent of price, net margin on signed contracts, cancellations, completed unsold homes by age. Target cancellations under 20%.

DM "BUYDOWN" and Macwood will send the full concession model.

04/10/2026

In a Gallup survey of front line bosses across all industries, 65% got the job for being good at the work or being around a long time. Only 30% got it for being able to lead. The ones picked for the work were less engaged in the job, 31% against 42%, and nearly 1 in 4 had never had any training.

That's all industries, not just trades. The question for a roofer is whether the best installer has ever been tested on running a crew.

What most roofing and home service owners can run before the next promotion:

A trial before the title. Make them acting crew leader for 60 to 90 days and score them on planning, talking to the crew, coaching, quality and handling fights.
Training in the first 30 days on scheduling, quality, talking to the crew and managing their time. In one 2018 study of industrial construction foremen, fewer than 3 in 10 had training in scheduling or time management.
A raise plus a bonus paid only on margin the crew beats. Example (our math): a crew does $1.6 million of work priced at 30% profit ($480,000) and lands at 33% ($528,000). That's $48,000 more than planned. A 25% share is $12,000 and the owner keeps $36,000. At or under the estimate, the bonus is $0. Pay it only if callbacks and safety are clean.
A cap on how many people one leader runs. Our guide is 2 to 4 for a working lead and 5 to 8 for a crew leader, with another leader added past 10 direct reports. No field crew data backs those exact numbers.

What a miss costs, example on $75,000 a year (our math): about $15,750 at 21% of pay (Center for American Progress median across 30 studies) up to $150,000 at 2 times pay (Gallup's 2019 estimate), depending on how it's counted.

DM "CREW" and Macwood will send the full crew leader breakdown.

04/10/2026

Nearly half of kitchen and bath pros say not having enough crew is already holding them back from taking on new projects. For them, more leads isn't the fix. The number that says when to turn the ads down is backlog in weeks.

Example math (our math): crews finish 2 jobs a week and 1 in 7 leads gets signed, so they need 14 leads a week. Buy 21 and they sign 3 jobs, 1 more than the crews can build. At $65,000 a job that's another $65,000 stacked up every week, and after 10 weeks about 5 extra weeks of work are waiting.

What most remodelers can run starting Friday:

Add up the dollars of signed jobs that haven't started and divide by the dollars of work the crews finish in a week. That's backlog in weeks.
Remodelers in one survey reported about 5.6 weeks of backlog, so draw the line at 8 weeks (a starting point, our rule). Under it, buy a little more than the crews can build. Past it, cut paid leads to 80% of that. Past 12 weeks, pause the sources that make the least money per lead and keep referrals going. Then move the line to the longest wait they'd be happy to quote.
Put the overflow on a waitlist with a firm start window and a deposit. Deposit and cancellation rules vary by state, so check them first.
Log how many signed jobs cancel before they start, by how long the wait was. No public data was found on that, so their own numbers are the edge.

Why the wait matters: when homeowners struggled to find a pro, price was the biggest thing in the way at 25% and pros being too busy or not available came next at 21%. That survey doesn't show waits cost sales, just that availability comes up.

DM "BACKLOG" and Macwood will send the backlog band model.

04/10/2026

The slow season is a cash problem, not a sales problem. 34% of home service owners name weather and seasonality as their top growth constraint, and the median construction firm holds 20 days of cash. One quarter of small businesses hold under 13.

Revenue swings less than earnings in the public comps because overhead doesn't shrink. Rollins (pest control, 75% recurring) had a peak quarter 1.25x the slowest in 2025, worst quarter still ran at 87% of average. SiteOne (landscape supply) Q2 sales were 1.56x Q1 and adjusted EBITDA was 10.1x. Rent, salaries and trucks don't disappear in the slow months.

Reserve math, stated assumptions: $4.8M revenue, $400K average month, $110K monthly overhead, 40% contribution margin.

Mild case, 4 months at 60% of average: shortfall $14K/month, reserve needed $56K.

Severe case, 4 months at 35% of average: shortfall $54K/month, reserve needed $216K. Across the other 8 months that averages $27K/month, or 5.1% of revenue, set aside into a separate account. Illustrative, every shop's number is different.

The play, by month:

Month 1: build a 24-month revenue index and a 13-week cash forecast. Size the reserve off the trough month, not the average.

Months 1 to 2: open the credit line while trailing financials are strong. Underwriters say yes faster when the P&L is coming off a peak.

Months 2 to 4: sell a recurring plan to past customers (maintenance, filter changes, seasonal tune-ups, inspections). Track recurring share of slow-month revenue. This is the only lever with public evidence behind it.

Months 3 to 6: pre-sell slow-month capacity 8 to 12 weeks ahead at a discount tied to scheduling the job in a named week. Test small, measure booked slow-month days.

Peak months: move the set-aside into a separate account the operating card can't touch. If it sits in the main account it gets spent on a truck.

Months 9 to 12: before any layoff, compare the cost of replacing a worker (median 21% of annual pay) against the cost of carrying slow-season payroll on the reserve. On a $65K tech, replacement runs about $13,650. Carrying three slow months of payroll is often cheaper than hiring back in spring.

Track one number weekly: 13-week coverage ratio. Cash plus collectible receivables plus booked receipts, divided by overhead plus payroll. Target 1.0 or better through the trough. Under 1.0 and 4+ weeks out, slow sales. More jobs don't fix a cash gap.

DM "RESERVE" and Macwood will send the full reserve model.

04/10/2026

An empty hygiene chair costs about $2,691 a week in a typical practice. A $5 an hour raise to fill it costs about $166 a week. The raise is 16x cheaper than the vacancy.

The shortage is real: only 60% of dentists say they have an adequate number of hygienists, 91% of those recruiting call it very or extremely challenging. Median hygienist pay is $98,100/year, $47.16/hour.

The math on one vacant week, with stated assumptions: $150 of hygiene production per productive hour, 7 productive hours a day, 4 days a week, median wage, 7.65% payroll tax. Weekly production lost: $4,200. Wage avoided: $1,509. Net loss per vacant week: $2,691. 12-week vacancy: $32,291. The $5 raise is about $8,612 a year with payroll tax, breakeven at 3.2 weeks of vacancy avoided. Illustrative, every practice's number is different, and the example leaves out downstream production so it understates the loss.

Five moves:

Price every open chair in weekly dollars before deciding on any raise. Rule of thumb: a raise that costs 3 weeks of vacancy loss or less is worth making. The $5 raise sits at 3.2.

Reprice to local market data and raise existing staff in the same move. A new-hire offer alone creates pay compression. The practices losing hygienists to the shop down the street are the ones that paid new hires above tenured ones and assumed nobody noticed.

Offer 3 or 4 day schedules and convert part-time or temp hygienists to a fixed day. The scarce hire is choosing between offers on more than hourly rate.

Add a health stipend if none exists. Only 36.7% of hygienists were offered health insurance in the 2022 workforce survey. For a lot of candidates this is the deciding line, not pay.

Signing bonus if used, 50% at 90 days, 50% at 12 months, capped at 3 weeks of vacancy loss. Pays only if the hire stays.

The perception gap behind all of it: 80% to 85% of dentists report they raised staff pay. 45.5% of hygienists and 49.2% of assistants report getting a raise. Top reasons hygienists leave: culture (46%), no growth (34.8%), inadequate benefits (33.3%). A dated pay conversation with every team member each year closes most of that at no cost.

Track two numbers: open chair days and days to fill. Target: no chair open beyond 10 business days.

DM "CHAIR" and Macwood will send the full staffing math.

03/10/2026

66% of homeowners say they'll get 3 roofing quotes, and only 2% expect a reply within the hour. Most expect one the same day (39%) or in 1 to 2 days (56%).

So the win isn't answering in 60 seconds. It's getting the quote out within 24 hours of the visit, then having something new to say after it goes out.

What most roofers can run this week:

7 touches in 14 days across text, call, email and a handwritten letter. Every touch carries something new: photos of a similar job, a financing option, an install date. Never "just checking in."
The letter is the one that stands out in a pile of texts and emails. A letter service writes it and mails it for a few dollars each (vendor pricing runs about $2.50 to $7+, confirm what's included). Add a small gift like a coffee card, keep it funny ("Hey Mike, we miss you, coffee's on us"), and keep the gift a plain thank-you, not a discount or deductible waiver.
Every week, pull every quote older than 48 hours with no next step and give each one a date and an owner.

Example math, not a benchmark: at 60 quotes a month, 1 extra win a month is 1.7 more wins per 100 quotes. On a $20,000 job that's $240,000 a year.

The 7 touches in 14 days is Macwood's plan, not a survey result, so they should track quotes sent and jobs sold each month to see what it's worth.

DM "QUOTES" and Macwood will send the automated letter writing system.

Macwood Capital

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