09/04/2020
//Lessons from 2009 flu epidemic
The textbook vaccine model goes out the window when novel viruses emerge.
Some lessons can be drawn from the 2009 H1N1 flu epidemic, which killed an estimated 500,000 people around the world. In the U.S, President Barack Obama declared the spread a national emergency.
A vaccine was developed as early as the fall of 2009. However, only 16 million doses were initially available. The CDC was required to make some difficult decisions about allocation. Some states requested 10 times the amount they were allocated.
In the end, the CDC allocated the vaccine strictly in proportion to a state’s population – that is, on a per capita basis. States then allocated them, often with priority to infants and the elderly, along with people at high risk.
This priority – to protect the most frail – has been public policy since at least the 1957-1958 influenza pandemic.
Later studies, however, have shown that a better way to protect older people was to control spread among the young, which often has meant vaccinating school-age children early.
One of the lessons from these past pandemics is that vaccinating the likely asymptomatic spreaders early can avert multiple infections with others.
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A team of experts argues that after taking care of essential workers, COVID-19 vaccinations should be given to the greatest transmitters of the virus, who are mostly the young.