07/31/2026
📡 The Forcecast, No.2 / three signals, one move:
While you're reading this, the Federal Reserve is sitting down.
📶 Signal 1: Prices just did something they haven't done in six years.
• The Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% in June — the biggest monthly decline since April 2020 — pulling annual inflation down to 3.5% from 4.2% in May. Core held at 2.6%.
• This is the first annual inflation rate drop since January.
📶 Signal 2: Buyers didn't blink. Retail sales rose 0.2% in June to $768.6 billion.
• That's another month of increased consumer spend, the fifth straight monthly gain — up 6.7% from a year ago.
• Strip out cheaper gasoline and sales rose 0.4%
📶 Signal 3: Don't expect help from the Fed.
• Experts expect the Fed to hold at 3.50%–3.75% at this week's meeting.
• The June dot plot signaled NO rate cuts in 2026.
🎯 The Move: Cheap money isn't coming this year. H2 growth has to come from demand that YOU create — and cooling prices just handed your buyers room to say YES. The sellers who show up now win the budget conversations happening this quarter.
Sources: BLS CPI (7/14/26); Census Advance Retail Sales (7/16/26); CME FedWatch; Federal Reserve
