10/05/2026
John Pederson, 33, couldn’t work. The former Outback Steakhouse line cook was recovering from a car crash and running out of money.
Kalshi, the prediction market, promised a quick way to fix that. He took out a variable-interest loan and started betting.
At first, it worked. Pederson turned about $2,000 into close to $8,000 by betting on daily snowfall totals in Detroit, where he lives. He parlayed that into $41,000 by trading on sports, using a strategy he developed with the help of AI, according to a Wall Street Journal review of his account records.
Then he placed his most audacious bet yet: All $41,000 that a celebrity would say a particular word on TV. He lost it all.
Pederson isn’t alone in walking away empty-handed from the bet-on-anything markets, which cover sports, celebrities, news and more.
Kalshi and its competitor Polymarket advertise themselves as life-changing tools for regular people—implying everyone has a fair chance to score.
But for most users the reality is nothing like that.
Instead, casual traders are bleeding cash while a small number of sophisticated pros—including trading firms with access to vast streams of data—eat their lunch, according to a Journal analysis of platform data and interviews with traders.
On Polymarket, the Journal found, 67% of profits go to just 0.1% of accounts. Most Kalshi users also lose money.
Casual traders “have no chance. Systematically,” said Michael Boss, a former professional poker player and a statistician by training.
🔗 Read more: https://on.wsj.com/4w8AN9S