Breithorn Group

30/03/2019

Our political economist John Wójcik is in Vientiane, Laos consulting with the UNODC - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime in order to train the Ministry of Public Security and its Anti-Trafficking Department to more effectively curb the flow of illicit money into the region.

Human trafficking affects 40-120 million people worldwide, yet in many emerging markets like Laos there are as little as 115 reported cases every year.

25/02/2019

Targeted sanctions are often effective strategies to achieve specific foreign policy objectives when diplomacy breaks down. But what are the human costs? In this issue of Political Economy, economist Dr. Naseraddin Alizadeh quantifies the adverse effects of the 2010-2015 comprehensive sanctions levied against Iran by the United States and Europe, finding that while the policy was effective in slowing the development of Iran's nuclear program, the primary victims were 'unprivileged outsiders' to the Iranian regime. Several indicators- such as democratic and human rights indices, income inequality, women and child mortality, asylum conditions, first and middle-income deciles’ welfare, healthcare quality, and the environment- were negatively impacted. This brings up the question: what level of collateral damage is acceptable from a game theoretical perspective when evaluating economic sanctions?

Read more on POLITICAL ECONOMY:

Dr. Naseraddin Alizadeh measures the adverse economic costs of the comprehensive sanctions against Iran, examining the game theoretical mechanisms of sanctions in general, and how unprivileged 'outsiders' in Iran became primary victims.

21/10/2018

COMPOUNDFX: Barring any significant correction in what some analysts consider to be an overvalued US equity market, the USDJPY breaking a 3-year trendline paired with strong fundamentals suggests that the pair could return to highs last seen in mid-2015.

There have been some major technical updates over the past several weeks. A major long-term downward sloping trendline has been broken to the upside. This is si

11/10/2018

In the third, security-themed issue of POLITICAL ECONOMY, Lucas Oesterreich explores the macroeconomic and security-related consequences of the Trump administration’s first executive order to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, arguing that it constitutes an immense forfeiture of soft power in the Asia-pacific region towards Beijing.

This major research paper explores the macroeconomic and security-related consequences of the Trump administration’s first executive order to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2016.

05/10/2018

In our security-themed, third issue of POLITICAL ECONOMY, political scientist and NATO Association of Canada analyst Taylor Allen evaluates Canada's for capabilities at key spending levels, and makes the case for reduced reliance on the United States for our national defense.

Political Scientist and NATO Analyst Taylor Allen evaluates Canada's defense capabilities at key spending levels and makes the case for less reliance on the United States.

13/09/2018

POLITICAL ECONOMY: John Wójcik and Lucas Oesterreich discuss the economic downturn's warnings for emerging markets, Turkey's exposure to financial contagion in global markets, decoupling theory, allegations of an US 'economic war' against Turkey over the jailing of Andrew Brunson, and Erdoğan’s astonishing move to control state monetary policy from the Presidency.

John Wojcik and Lucas Oesterreich describe the causes and implications of the Turkish crisis for emerging markets.

28/08/2018

For decades, the value of the Canadian dollar and the price of crude oil have been strongly correlated, but this pattern broke down in June 2017. Why, and under what conditions can we expect another divergence?

Find out more on COMPOUNDFX:

Why did we see a divergence between the CADUSD and crude oil prices in June 2017 despite a strong correlation coefficient in prices for decades?

20/08/2018

Recent CPI data outpacing forecasts by 0.5% and the Bank of Canada's monetary policy outlook suggest a weakening AUD against the CAD in the short- to medium-term.

Read more on COMPOUNDFX:

Since hitting the major price level of 1.020 in early February the AUDCAD pair has fallen over  4%. Most of those gains can be attributed to the Bank of Canada’

14/08/2018

News this morning indicates the possibility of a 'no-deal' Brexit. What does this mean for financial markets and the long-term outlook of the GBP?

More on COMPOUNDFX:

It's been a little more than a year since the UK voted on the referendum to leave the EU, and since then the pound sterling has lost more than 10% of its value.

14/08/2018

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09/08/2018

In our first round of publications through in-house research journal POLITICAL ECONOMY, Lucas Oesterreich explores how human psychology and expenditure expectations after Deng Xiaoping's market reforms in 1978 led to a higher propensity to save among Chinese consumers, and how this has fueled a crisis of over-investment in the Chinese real estate sector.

Main portal for the range of professional services offered by Breithorn Group, including Breithorn Analytics, Political Economy publication, Macroeconomic Risk Indices, private research, and public reports/commentary on politics and economics.

04/08/2018

Comprehensive analysis on political economy that both starts and ends conversations.