Petit Poll

24/02/2017

While we use Cloudflare, no survey responses were collected via the website during the period of the bug (based on the information they released today).

We'll need to adjust our processes going forward and will put some thought into this as part of the current revamp.

If you have any concerns/suggestions please do get in touch.

28/06/2016

We're working on improving our logo. What do you think?

First look at the outer parallelogram, then look at the larger and smaller inner parallelograms, denoted by red and blue triangles. Notice that the blue and red inner parallelograms are similar to each other in terms of the angles? Notice that they are similar to the outer parallelogram?

It's a similar idea to what we do with Petit Poll - using information we collect on a small sample, and the knowledge that it is related to a larger sample to help understand the broader implications.

The original image is from Euclid, Elements of Geometry, Book VI, Prop XXIV, c. 300 BCE. It was colored in this manner by Oliver Byrne in 1847 and republished by Taschen in 2013.

26/06/2016

It's final week of the campaign!

Our polling for a forecast to be published later in the week has started, the model is being tidied up for public release, and a new logo is being finalized.

If you're interested in taking our final poll, then sign up at:
https://www.petitpoll.com/initial-poll

24/06/2016

Brexit polling http://www.petitpoll.com/blog/2016/6/24/brexit-polling

Others can discuss elsewhere the broader implications of Brexit. I want to make a few brief points about the Brexit polling. The polls were about as accurate as I'd expect. Mostly they reported that the referendum was going to be close. Generally, their interval of expected outcomes included the cri...

23/06/2016

Who do you trust? http://www.petitpoll.com/blog/2016/6/22/who-do-you-trust

This is the first in a series of posts analyzing tweets about the election. What do you remember about the 2004 election? Perhaps it was the Howard-Latham handshake, the worm, or Medicare Gold. I remember Howard making the election about trust.  ...Who do you trust to keep the economy strong and pro...

22/06/2016

Petit Poll's latest survey went out this morning. If you signed up, but haven't received it then perhaps check your junk or promotional folders. If still nothing, then get in touch.

There's only one more week of polling before the election, so if you'd like to sign up then go to:
https://www.petitpoll.com/initial-poll

14/06/2016

Our latest poll is live. If you'd like to help us out by taking our polls in the lead up to the election, then you can sign up here: https://www.petitpoll.com/initial-poll

14/06/2016

Model updates http://www.petitpoll.com/blog/2016/6/13/model-updates

We use a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach to obtain estimates of voting intent. Our approach closely follows the approach used by Ghitza and Gelman (2013). However, this week we made some changes to the underlying model, to better make use of the information obtained from...

10/06/2016

Our database http://www.petitpoll.com/blog/2016/6/10/our-database

Petit Poll uses biased samples. Traditionally, this would make our results meaningless, but we are able to make reasonable conclusions because we tie our samples to representative data. The best option for this representative data would be a large exit poll from the 2013 election. But, I was not abl...

10/06/2016

We had 60 responses to a quick, fun, Twitter poll. The expected election result on 2 July was essentially even.

The result was unexpected because the poll was targeted toward people likely to support the ALP (based on location and interests). Will re-do next week trying to target likely-Coalition supporters.

If you'd like to help out by taking our proper polls then please go to petitpoll.com/initial-poll to get involved.

07/06/2016

Petit Poll has found increasing support for the Greens each week since the race began, and their primary vote is now mid-teens.

To find out more, please sign up to take our polls: https://www.petitpoll.com/initial-poll

(Photo is of a croc in Kakadu.)

05/06/2016

What our ads look like http://www.petitpoll.com/blog/2016/6/5/what-our-ads-look-like

Unless you live in Canberra you are unlikely to be exposed to our Facebook/Twitter ads. So I thought I'd take a moment to show you what they look like. Our current Facebook/Twitter ads look like this: They (hopefully) draw a viewer in with the photo, and then ask a question about the photo. For thos...