04/04/2025
Nitrogen Global Overview
• Indian Demand and US Tariffs: The global urea market experienced significant volatility following new US tariffs affecting various exporters. India’s upcoming tender (closing April 8, targeting 1.5 million tonnes for June shipments) is likely to heavily influence market dynamics.
Regional Developments
Baltic
• Russian producers uncertain about US tariff implications (potentially 10% tariff).
• Prilled urea valued around $340-$350/tonne fob; granular urea around $360-$365/tonne fob.
Africa
• Egypt: Temporary gas supply disruptions led to brief shutdowns. Granular urea prices rose significantly, reaching up to $400/tonne fob.
• Algeria: Facing 30% US tariffs, Algerian product redirected towards Europe and Brazil with granular prices at $400-$405/tonne fob.
• Nigeria: Subject to 14% US tariffs, redirecting shipments from US to Latin America and potentially India.
Middle East
• Surge in spot prices driven by demand from Oceania and anticipation of India’s tender. Prices rose to $365-$390/tonne fob.
Southeast Asia & China
• Southeast Asian market quiet due to holidays; Chinese domestic market firm with production rates high. No exports from China expected soon.
Europe
• Prices edged higher due to increased replacement costs. French market offers €400-€410/tonne FCA.
USA
• Dramatic market shift due to introduction of tariffs (10% baseline, up to 30% for Algeria). Nola urea prices surged above $400/ton from previous levels ($380-$387/ton). Market volatility high as suppliers reassess logistics.
Latin America
• Brazilian offseason demand stable but recovering due to international price hikes ($370-$390/tonne cfr Brazil).
Specific Fertilizers
UAN and Nitrates
• US UAN market tight due to domestic production constraints and import limitations. European AN/CAN markets experienced modest demand.
Ammonium Sulphate (Amsul)
• US tariffs (20%) on European Amsul to impact market, though US remains premium market despite tariffs. Chinese compacted Amsul prices rebounding, with strong demand noted in SE Asia and Brazil.
Outlook
The immediate future heavily depends on India’s upcoming tender outcomes and the full market response to new US tariffs. Further shifts in global trade flows are anticipated, notably towards Latin America and Asia due to tariffs imposed by the US on key suppliers.
