07/14/2021
Can we imagine a Future Power Grid without Batteries? Thinking ahead for the next 30 years
An immediate answer to this question could be "Yes," although such "Yes" could not be extended to all types of energy storage solutions. Modern electric grids require energy storage, and current technological and market trends towards strengthening the batteries' role in the grid are more evident, at least in the near term.
We must consider the future electric grid 30 years ahead and its interaction with the energy supply side and the demand side.
The transition towards decarbonization has been occurring at a fast pace during the last decade in the electric power sector—the renewable share of the total worldwide final energy consumption has already reached an impressive 27.1%, according to REN2021*. Wind, biomass, and solar power are at the forefront position.
Even facing the pandemic time during 2020, renewables were the only source of electricity generation to experience a net increase. Investment in renewable power grew for the third consecutive year, and corporations continued to break records for sourcing renewable electricity. More countries are turning to the electrification of heat with renewable energy.
The more decentralized source of generation is also a significant trend. The shift in energy sources already underway shows massive transformation towards decentralized energy resources (DER). According to Amus**(2020), Global new annual DER capacity additions are already close to the centralized capacity additions. In 2020 the estimates of DER were around 200 GW against 220 GW of centralized additions. By 2030 DER can reach nearly 195% of the centralized capacity additions.
Therefore, the future power systems will require new design concepts and operational modes to deal with new generation patterns with a strong presence of variability and uncertainty and much more DER across the grid.
The old saying that "electricity cannot be stored at competitive economical prices" cannot be applied anymore. We foresee energy storage assets will be a standard component of power systems, like substations and transmission lines.
In future grids with no energy storage-free alternative, the battery energy storage system-BESS has several advantages that make it a strategical tool, since BESS:
a) can easily be placed where grid stabilization is required (locational advantage)
b) can be constructed and start operation in a relatively short time, responding to the needs at the right time also including quicker licensing processes (responsive advantage)
c) can be modularized, thus allowing upgrades according to progressive additional grid requirements (scalability advantage)
d) can already be provided by several commercial suppliers, for most stages of the supply chain, both from regional or worldwide markets (competitive supply advantage)
Concluding remarks - the question about imagining a future electric power grid without energy storage is "not", definitely. Without grid-scale batteries also seems to be "not," considering the locational, responsive, scalability, and competitive advantages of BESS technologies, at least in the next 30 years. Nevertheless, several other open questions remain a) how much storage would be required for every MW of renewable and DER coupled to future load variability; b) how long BESS will be competitive compared to other evolving storage technologies (ex. hydrogen); c) which and to what extent BESS and other energy storage assets will displace other electrical grid assets?
Some of these questions are addressed on publications listed on the Know BESS project website (https://sites.google.com/view/knowbess/publication).
You can also contribute to expanding the BESS knowledge by responding to a questionnaire available on the website, as a professional of the Battery Manufacturer industry; Utilities, or Grid Operator (https://sites.google.com/view/knowbess/questionnaries)
Prof. Paulo Barbosa is the Principal Investigator of the KNOW BESS project.
[email protected]
*REN21- Renewables 2021 Global Status Report
**Asmus, P., Global Microgrids Market Status Report, Guidehouse Insights, October 2020
