24/10/2025
Some Thoughts on the Future Development of the Industry
Over the past two days, I have studied Mr. Huang from Zhuhai Tiger's observations and reflections on this year's exhibition. His insights are professional, rigorous, and marked by keen perception. They have brought sudden clarity to peers who are feeling lost and hesitant, like dispelling clouds to see the light. His views are worthy of learning, observation, reference, and respect. As a media professional with over 20 years of experience in the industry, I felt compelled to write down some thoughts to add my voice—these are just a few hasty words for readers to ponder.
After three days of visiting this year's exhibition, there were very few highlights in the industry, and even fewer new players. Most enterprises are peers who grew up alongside the industry's period of rapid growth. They have collectively gone through multiple phases, including product iteration, technological iteration, industrial transfer, localization, and automation. Whether at the industry, enterprise, individual, or cluster level, all have grown accustomed to the dividends of economic development and believed that the "cake" would only get bigger. For more than 20 years since China's accession to the WTO, this has indeed been the case for China's market and the office equipment industry. All companies established or entering China during this period have long been accustomed to the model of high market growth, with all corporate activities focused on expansion. Driven by the mindset of "the bolder the ambition, the greater the output," they raced ahead at full speed. Although the country began advocating for the "new normal" of the economy in 2020, our industry remained immersed in the carnival of the past, unable to extricate itself. It was not until the "downpour" hit early last year that it finally woke up the people who were in a frenzy.
"Involution" has become a consensus in the industry in recent years, and these have also been the three most brutal years for price wars. For example, Apex's net profit in the second quarterly report plummeted from 39 million yuan in 2024 to 12 million yuan in the same period this year. What was once a "golden asset" for a listed company has been reduced to a "tattered basin at a street stall." If the industry leader is faring like this, the numerous smaller enterprises that follow in its footsteps can only fall into an abyss. The reasons are not hard to identify. After visiting and communicating with many industry peers, I have summarized the following consensus through analysis:
1.Product iteration has come to a halt.
2.Technological iteration has stagnated.
3.Business model iteration has stopped.
The original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) we rely on have ceased to launch new machines or new technologies, and innovation has stagnated. The path for us in the compatible supplies/equipment sector is quickly coming to an end.
A mood of pessimism and despair hangs over the industry. Problems once masked by growth have emerged one after another: declining or stagnant sales, rising costs, falling profits, factory loans, social security, and taxes. Upon careful reflection, subjectively speaking, the industry has developed too smoothly—almost effortlessly. Many peers seem to have never encountered setbacks since entering the industry; they have no idea what production cuts, layoffs, drastic cost-cutting, or bankruptcy liquidation mean, leaving them completely bewildered. They wonder why the industry has suddenly become like this, and why there are no new products, new customers, or new markets. This year will likely be the worst year many have experienced since entering the industry. They are completely confused about where the future lies and whether there is a future at all.
Waves of tariff wars, trade wars, geopolitical tensions, war risks, and de-globalization have emerged one after another, all exerting a profound impact on global economic development and investment. In particular, the economic decoupling between China and the United States—hard decoupling may not be impossible in a few years, as both sides have been warning of an impending crisis. Thus, a nightmare lingers deep in the hearts of all peers: Will the office equipment industry decline rapidly, or can it survive until we retire? If this question cannot be clarified, it will shake the foundation of the industry's development and fail to dispel the haze of hesitation and confusion hanging over it.
Admittedly, the industry has indeed reached a bottleneck, but it is far from a life-or-death situation. From thermal printing to dot matrix printing, inkjet to laser, black-and-white to color, analog to digital, and spare parts to consumables, the industry has undergone wave after wave of iteration. New technologies and brands once sprouted up like bamboo shoots after rain, dazzling people. Now, however, the landscape looks empty, with nothing new in sight. I advise my peers to adapt to the new normal of the industry's development—the days when "money could be picked up everywhere" are gone forever and will never return.
Over the past decade, I have visited more than 20 provincial capitals in China, traveled to over 30 countries, and met with thousands of industry peers. Objectively speaking, very few countries have achieved development as successful as China's, and it may be unlikely for others to do so in the future. The era of extensive high growth like before is gone forever; innovation will become the mainstream of the industry's development in the future.
The biggest highlight of this year's exhibition was the domestic duplicator on the booth of Foshan Libaotong. It is not hard to imagine that localization substitution holds immense potential.
Regarding printers, I believe it will be difficult for domestic printers to replace imported ones in the laser field, both in terms of cost and technology. The printer industry has long followed the business logic of "profiting from consumables while selling machines at a loss." Even if domestic manufacturers surpass their competitors technologically, it will be difficult for them to overtake in terms of scale. The demand for "Xinchuang" (information technology innovation) printers is confined to the domestic market and not part of the global mainstream. Instead, I think breaking through in inkjet printheads is more feasible. This area has lower technological barriers, broader prospects, and more comprehensive applications, with mature domestic supporting technologies. Whether for home use, commercial inkjet, high-speed printing, or wide-format printing, supporting manufacturers are abundant. Conservatively estimated, the annual demand for wide-format printheads alone is at least 1 million units. If this technology can be adapted to the office sector, forming a technological edge to achieve "corner overtaking," it could directly upend the current industry structure. The global market for equipment, consumables, and spare parts in this field would exceed 100 billion yuan.
The situation for copiers is most discouraging. Conservatively estimated, national sales have dropped by 12% year-on-year, a decrease of approximately 450,000 units—just thinking about it is distressing. Original manufacturers have joined the price war, adding insult to injury for the compatible market. When manufacturers abandon innovation and turn to price wars, how can the industry continue to operate? In fact, this is a normal phenomenon in the mature stage of an industry. Within three years, 7-color printers will surely become affordable for the general market. If no one remains in the industry, it will be detrimental to everyone—after all, manufacturers also need to survive. 7-color copiers will quickly enter the office sector, triggering the third wave of equipment renewal. The price drop from hundreds of thousands of yuan to 20,000 yuan will generate enormous market demand. The application of new technologies and materials in colors like gold, silver, pink, white, and purple will undoubtedly bring an entirely new imaging experience. Thinking about this, I wonder if it can dispel the anxiety and haze in our hearts.
Black-and-white digital machines: From 40,000 yuan to 4,000 yuan → The post-50s generation reaped the benefits.
Color digital machines: From 60,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan → The post-60s generation reaped the benefits.
Localization of consumables: From 280 yuan to 18 yuan → The post-70s generation reaped the benefits.
Globalization of consumables and spare parts: From 10,000 units to 1 million units → The post-80s generation reaped the benefits.
7-color machines: From 200,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan → Everyone has a chance.
Don't panic—the best is yet to come. Strive to survive. Take advantage of the industry's downturn to read more and refrain from reckless moves. If you have time, you can read Huawei's Winter written by Mr. Ren Zhengfei. Learn while waiting for the industry to recover from the cold winter.
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