19/08/2026
The Ripple Starts With Fertilizer. How Big Will It Reach the Dinner Table?
A food price shock rarely arrives all at once.
It spreads through the supply chain, like a ripple.
And today, the first ripple is already visible in fertilizer.
J.P. Morgan has warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with weather risks, could add further pressure to global food systems. Meanwhile, the World Bank expects fertilizer prices to rise by 31% in 2026.
But here is the part that deserves more attention:
The fertilizer shock comes first. The food-price impact can come much later.
Farmers do not immediately pass every increase in fertilizer, fuel and freight costs onto consumers. They adjust application rates, planting decisions, crop choices and margins first.
That creates a time lag.
2026 may be the year fertilizer feels the shock.
2027 may be when more of it reaches farms.
And 2028 could be when the broader food-price impact becomes much harder to ignore.
Goldman Sachs estimates that a very strong 2026 El Niño could eventually push global food commodity prices 15.8% higher, with the full effect only realised in H2 2028.
That is the real concern.
The ripple is already moving.
The question is:
Can agriculture reduce the height of the next wave before it reaches the table?
✅Better fertilizers?
✅Higher nutrient-use efficiency?
✅More local production?
✅Or stronger policy support?
Maybe the answer is not one of them, but all of them working together.