Investocraft Magazine

30/05/2020

Wangchuk, an engineer turned education reformer, is asking people to boycott everything made by China.The social innovator also rooted for Modi's call for 'Make in India' and 'Aatmanirbhar Bharat'

16/03/2020

05/04/2018

GBPUSD view

Based on technical factors on the GBPUSD weekly chart, the pair is in bullish territory and fundamental factors also support the same.

Technical factors:
In below weekly chart, fibo retracement has been drawn for three different downswings in the pair from the levels of 1.7207, 1.5938 and 1.5006 to 1.1445 levels.As can be observed for all the swings, the key fibo level have coincided around 1.3645-90 levels on downside and 1.4250-1.43 on upside.
MACD indicator shows the momentum on upside which is in line with the upward trend in which the pair is trading currently as depicted by the channel formation
However, on the upside 200 SMA,1.4257 will act as strong resistance as it has not been breached since its break on downside in May 2014
Historically, the range of 1.3660-1.38 has been a key area as break on ether side from these levels provides momentum in that direction

Fundamental factors:
Brexit negotiations are going in favor of Britain as transition period has already been finalised and its looks like UK will be able to come out with softer brexit
BOE has hawkish stance and rate hike is imminent in next BOE meeting

Conclusion

GBPUSD pair is likely to trade in broad range of 1.38-1.43 levels with bias towards breakout above 1.43 levels. Overall pair can be bought on dips with first target of 1.4250-1.43 levels and second target of 1.4563 previous weekly low April 2015. The crucial support level is 1.38 and break below 13650 will lead to change in view

27/03/2018

Elliot Wave count on weekly USDINR chart

The Elliot wave count can be broken into five step impulsive wave ( 1 to 5) and three step corrective wave (A to C). In the impulsive wave, waves 2 and 4 are corrective and can be called pullback waves. Similarly, in corrective wave, wave B is a pullback wave. Each wave can be further divided into counts of 3s and 5s depending on whether the wave under consideration is corrective or impulsive.

In the USDINR weekly chart, the impulsive wave ( in downward direction) started when we started retreating back from the all time high of 68.80. As can be seen in the chart, third (3) wave is the longest impulsive wave which can further be divided into five step wave. The wave 3 ended at 63.55 level. The wave 4 is a pullback wave and can be seen as a three step wave and ended at 66.10. wave 5, which is the last step of the impulsive wave ended at the recent low of 63.21.

Currently, we are in the wave A of the corrective wave. wave A can be further seen as step 5 wave. We are at part V and it can go up till 65.40 level. From there, wave B can start and go till 64.50-64.60 levels which have been good (support = resistance) levels in the past. Post that we would enter into the last wave C. The level range of 66.00-66.15 is the 62% Fibonacci level if we draw the Fibonacci projection for 5-A length of wave from 64.60 ( where B wave is expected to end). If this level breaks than C wave could extend up to 66.80.

27/03/2018

Impact of H1 borrowing program on yield curve

Finance ministry announced the H1 FY19 borrowing program on 26 march 2018. For first time, government has introduced issuances in 1-4 year bucket to the tune of 24k cr (8.3% of total borrowings of 2.88 lac cr). Also, there has been reduction in the issuances for 10-14 year bucket from 52.2% to 29.2%. The gross borrowing has come down for H1 and kept to only 47.5% of the full year budget which is normally front loaded and in past H1 borrowings have covered around 60%.

The chart below shows the impact of borrowing program on yield curve. As a result of issuances introduced for bucket of 1-4 years, the yield curve has more or less stayed at same level. But because of the lower borrowing in longer tenor buckets, bond yields have dropped and yield curve has flattened at longer end. As a result of this, bond market which has been under pressure for some months now has got some relief as 10 year benchmark bond yield opened lower by 25 bps (7.37%). Also, the banking sector that has been battling with MTM losses had sigh of relief as their MTM losses must have paired with the fall in yields. It will be interesting to see how government manages its borrowing program in the second half of FY19.

18/01/2015

What has elections instore for Greece !!

http://lopadhlofin.blogspot.in/2015/01/greek-o-nomics-build-up-to-legislative.html

16/01/2015

Shale vs crude - The survival of fittest!!
http://lopadhlofin.blogspot.in/

18/11/2014

Sharelock 2014- the Equity Research battle of Investocraft saw an overwhelming response this year from more than 100 teams. The initial screening was based on submission of reports on any of two companies in Petroleum sector- Cairn India and IOCL. From this round emerged 7 teams which were called for presentation on th NMIMS campus. After an intense battle of presentations, valuations and a gruelling QnA round emerged the winners of ER.
We are proud to present the winners of Sharelock 2014

Winners: Natus Vincere, NMIMS Mumbai
Karan Shah
Nitin Kothari
Apoorv Sarwahi

Runner up: Warrior
Akhil Kantak
Prashant Gianani
Venkatakrishnan Vaidyanathan

Congratulations to the winners..

We would like to thank all the participants for making this event successful and our judge for taking out time and giving us valuable inputs.

08/11/2014

The much awaited results for ShareLock are here.

The teams that go into the final round are:

Team DCF - IMT Ghaziabad
Team Intelligent Investors- IIM Bangalore
Team Altius- NMIMS Mumbai
The3Musketeers - NMIMS Mumbai
Warrior- KJ SIMSR
Yours Truly - NMIMS Mumbai

The Waitlisted Teams are
1. Finstars - RGIPT
2. Natus Vincere - NMIMS Mumbai
3. First Timers - NMIMS Mumbai
4. Dynamites - KJ SIMSR

Congratulations teams!! We will provide you with the details of the final round shortly. For any queries do write us at [email protected]

26/10/2014

Hope you had a bright and colorful Diwali!!. It's time to get back to business.
But we do have an offer for you.
The Deadline to register yourselves and submit your Equity Research Report and Excel Models have been extended to 2nd November EOD.
All the best!!
Happy researching!!
Do register if u haven't yet at
http://www.paragana.nmims.edu/ShareLock.htm

21/10/2014

Q2 Results For Cairn India is out. Rings any bells? Reshuffle the numbers in your valuation sheet with the latest information available to gain an edge over others.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results/cairn-india-q2-profit-falls-108-revenue-declines-11_1209142.html

Do not forget to register at -http://paragana.nmims.edu/ShareLock.html

During the quarter, total profit petroleum was Rs 1,322 crore including Rs 1,133 crore for Rajasthan block, said the company in its filing, adding royalty for the RJ block was Rs 908 crore...

21/10/2014

We will provide clues at several points to help you decode value in the given companies. Read B. Ashok, chairman IOC speak his views on recent changes in the sector. Keep following this space for more. Also, We expect you to take into account the recent numbers to arrive at your valuation score...
http://m.moneycontrol.com/news/business/subsidy-burden-seen-at-rs-85000-crfallcrude-ioc_1207556.html

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, B Ashok, Chairman, IOC, said the gas price hike will benefit industry and economy as a whole and expects a higher competition going ahead.