26/05/2026
OL KALOU BY-ELECTION: DCP TAKES COMMAND AS UDA AND JUBILEE STRUGGLE FOR RELEVANCE.
With the July 16th, 2026 by-election fast approaching, the battle to replace the late Hon. Kiaraho is increasingly shaping into a referendum on political direction in Ol Kalou.
Our latest survey shows Sammy Ngotho (DCP) opening a commanding lead with 61.4%, far ahead of Samuel Muchina (UDA) at 18.0%, while Martin Wambugu “Tinga Tinga” (PLP) follows distantly at 6.3%.
The party landscape mirrors the same trend. DCP leads party support with 51.8%, comfortably ahead of UDA’s 19.1%, while the once-dominant Jubilee Party (6.5%) appears to have lost significant ground in a constituency it previously controlled through the late Hon. Kiaraho.
Mizani Africa Insight:
Although the late Hon. Kiaraho was elected on a Jubilee Party ticket, his close working relationship with President William Ruto and the UDA administration had initially created expectations that UDA could inherit the constituency’s support base after his passing.
However, the current numbers suggest that the succession battle has moved beyond legacy politics and entered a new phase driven by fresh political realignments and protest energy.
At the moment, DCP appears to have successfully consolidated both party momentum and candidate preference, giving Sammy Ngotho a significant structural advantage heading into the by-election.
For UDA, the challenge is no longer just mobilization, but overcoming a widening perception gap despite proximity to government power. Meanwhile, Jubilee’s collapse to single digits signals a major erosion of its historical foothold in the constituency, raising serious questions about whether the party can still compete meaningfully in the Mt. Kenya political battlefield.
Unless there is a major late-stage shift, consolidation, or turnout surprise, the current trajectory positions DCP as the clear front runner heading into July 16th, 2026
OL KALOU
Ol Kalou Tujuane
OL KALOU CONSTITUENCY & NYANDARUA COUNTY DEVELOPMENT FORUM
NYANDARUA POLITICS.
NYANDARUA PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY
Mizani Africa turning Data into Direction