03/06/2026
📊 Turning Data into Insights, Not Assumptions
Hom Nath Chalise Hom Nath Dhungana Laxmi Prasad Sapkota
At Think Data Solution, we believe that public policies should be examined through evidence, statistics, and scientific reasoning. While governments often make decisions based on multiple competing priorities, not every potential impact can be fully explored beforehand.
This is where data science can help.
Dr. Hom Nath Dhungana has recently published a statistical analysis examining Nepal's new 5% VAT on household electricity consumption. Using Monte Carlo simulation, probability distributions, inequality measures, and data-driven modelling, the report explores:
âś… Expected household burden
âś… Potential government revenue generation
âś… Distributional equity and fairness
âś… Uncertainty and risk assessment
âś… Impacts across different electricity consumption levels
The purpose of this report is not to support or oppose any policy. Rather, it demonstrates how statistical thinking, Monte Carlo simulation, and basic quantitative models can help us better understand the possible consequences of policy decisions.
We invite researchers, students, policymakers, and the general public to read the report and share their thoughts.
Your feedback is highly valued.
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At Think Data Solution, our mission is simple:
"Transforming Data into Meaningful Insights."
Because sometimes a different lens—a statistical lens—reveals a different story.
Do you want to read a full story?
Click the full link
https://rpubs.com/Hom/1438061
Conclusion is
This Monte Carlo assessment shows that Nepal’s 5% electricity VAT may generate meaningful fiscal revenue, but it also creates important distributional and behavioural questions. The policy is statistically progressive in terms of electricity use, because low-use households pay little or nothing. However, it may be policy-sensitive because higher electricity costs can reduce incentives for electric cooking, appliance adoption, and clean-energy transition.
A more balanced approach would be to retain the basic exemption, apply gradual slabs, monitor seasonal burden, and transparently reinvest VAT revenue into transmission, distribution, transformer upgrades, and household electrification support.