09/03/2026
Monday morning, Week 2 of the US “special operation” in Iran.
And we’re starting to see the market wake up and go… ohhh, this might actually take longer than a weekend.
Oil has blasted past USD $100 a barrel as the war premium piles on and traders price in real supply disruption risk thanks to continued instability around the Strait of Hormuz and headlines of attacks on energy infrastructure. Brent and WTI both popped double digits this week as fear mounted.
Materially speaking, every US $1 added to a barrel of oil adds roughly 1 cent per litre at the pump.
So a $20 war spike translates in to 20 cents per litre.
And stocks are reacting accordingly.
The ASX has opened sharply lower, down around 3-4% as risk assets get sold off and investors rush for safety. The ASX 200 has already shed huge chunks of value... with nearly billions wiped off market caps, and it’s not just commodities stocks feeling it. Banks, miners, cyclicals all taking a hit as oil gains ground.
Globally, we’re seeing a similar reaction... Japan’s Nikkei has tanked as oil spikes. U.S. futures are sliding amid worsening risk sentiment.
There’s a “war premium” baked into markets now, not just a short-term blip. That premium shows up everywhere.
Central bankers and government officials are still scrambling for clarity, but real economics are already happening... fuel costs, transport costs, input costs, all flowing through to broader pricing pressures. The RBA has said it’s too early to know the full inflation impact because this is real supply risk, not just noise.
What some were claiming to be “2–4 days and done” is now clearly not that.
Markets aren’t panicking about the headlines.
They’re panicking about the risk that this conflict actually sticks around long enough to bite economies where it matters... energy, inflation, growth.
