23/05/2026
For millions of South Asian families, a job in the Gulf was never just employment, it was the house built back home, the sister's wedding paid for, the family lifted out of hardship. That lifeline is now under serious threat.
Since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began in February 2026, the Middle East conflict has delivered a double blow to India's already strained labour market. Gulf economies, which host roughly 9 million Indian workers, are now projected to grow at just 1.3% in 2026, down from 4.4% last year. Recruiters who once placed five to ten candidates monthly say they are now lucky to place one or two.
At the same time, India's export industries are bleeding. Leather factories in Kanpur, which alone employs 500,000 people, are running at half capacity. Rising fuel, shipping, and logistics costs driven by Strait of Hormuz uncertainty are crushing manufacturers before orders even arrive.
Workers like Mohammad Qureshi, who earned Rs. 30,000 monthly in Saudi Arabia, are back home earning a third of that. With 6 to 7 million young Indians entering the workforce every year, urban youth unemployment already sitting at 14%, and AI shrinking white-collar opportunities simultaneously, this is not a temporary setback.
For ordinary families across South Asia, the war abroad is arriving quietly, in smaller remittances, shuttered factories, and futures put on hold.
