24/11/2017
Asia Financial Centres: North and South Divide
(Sep 2017, View From Asia, fDi magazine, Financial Times, London)
As of 27 March 2017, the Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI) ranked London, New York, Singapore,
Hong Kong and Tokyo as the top five financial centres. Asia financial centres from the top 20 include Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney, Shanghai, Osaka and Beijing. Among the list of 88 financial centres, 21 are from Asia. Financial centres were ranked in five key areas: "business environment", "financial sector development", "infrastructure factors", "human capital", "reputation and general factors".
Leading Asia financial centres rose significantly while Western European ones remained volatile. Singapore gained at the expense of New York, closing the gap between third place Singapore and second place New York. Beijing rose significantly, rising ten places.
Among current factor conditions of major global disruptions, forces and trends like Brexit, new US presidential administration, increasing protectionism and digitization, how will these impact Asia’s financial centres?
In the short term, the situation is increasingly tense.
Political, security and major social upheavals undermine investor sentiment and unsettle financial centres despite improvements and gains from trade agreements, strong intra-Asia business environment and the other key ranked areas. Those in North Asia particularly are exposed to higher political and security risks.
If the North Korea security threat escalates to armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula, that alone will greatly undermine South Korea and Japan to a lesser extent.
India faces an unresolved border and territorial dispute with China as well as China’s strategic ties and support to Pakistan.
Should the US engage in an economic stand-off and sanctions with the world powers like China, then the Chinese financial centres will be much affected.
SE Asia centres face less of such risks. However, they face terrorism, insurgency and transnational crime as well as ongoing maritime disputes with China. China is trying to secure territorial and maritime claims in the Yellow, East and South China seas. In addition to China, the Spratlys are claimed by Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan. If confrontation were to involve Japan in the East China Sea or the Philippines in the South China Sea, the US would be obligated to consider military action under defense treaties.
Brighter prospects in Asia include rising economic growth, market liquidity and fintech development, improving ICT and transport infrastructure, as well as increasing workforce education and skills. These factors underpin the longer term financial sector development to ride out this current brewing storm and kerfuffle.