02/20/2022
It’s still February, and February is going to do more February things this week 🥶
By now, I’m sure many of you have caught wind of our upcoming cold snap and *potential* for some wintry weather. Let’s walk through the set-up and discuss what we are up against, but first things first… This will NOT be a full-blown winter storm in Central Texas, and we are not looking at an unmanageable level of cold weather. All in all, it’ll be a cold and drippy week with some nuisance ice potential. Here’s what we’re thinkin’ as of Saturday night.
𝗧𝗘𝗠𝗣𝗘𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗨𝗥𝗘𝗦
Soak up the coming warmth while it lasts. We are back in the low 70s on Sunday, and in the low to mid-80s on Monday and Tuesday (our warmest weather since early December.) That’s thanks largely to a stuffy south wind that will be increasing our humidity along the way.
The arctic cold front arrives WEDNESDAY morning with a sharp drop in temperatures. We’ll keep dropping through most of the day Wednesday eventually settling into the upper 30s and low 40s by Wednesday afternoon.
Another reinforcing push of cold air arrives Thursday night into Friday with highs still in the upper 30s and low 40s into the approaching weekend. Our coldest temperature of the forecast looks to arrive FRIDAY MORNING with a freeze possible (upper 20s to low 30s.) Cue our rain & ice chances…
𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗖𝗜𝗣𝗜𝗧𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡
As humidity loads up, we’ll get daily drizzle chances into the forecast beginning Monday morning. An isolated storm is possible Tuesday morning, but I’m not sold on that.
The cold front arriving Wednesday will be very shallow, occupying only the lowest level of the atmosphere. This will lead to what is called “isentropic lift” which translates to Gulf of Mexico moisture riding up and over that cold air mass, creating widespread drizzle and light rain chances. This will be the set-up through the rest of the coming week.
While temperatures will be cold, I don’t think they will be cold enough to support any ice chances until at least Friday morning as that colder air arrives. FRIDAY MORNING looks like the day to monitor for a brief transition to freezing drizzle or sleet, but I gotta tell ya, I’m not too impressed.
Even the worst case scenario among our data shows only very light ice for areas mainly north/west of Austin. If it happens, we’re looking at minor travel impacts on bridges and overpasses. This will NOT be enough ice to cause any power outages whatsoever.
𝗕𝗢𝗧𝗧𝗢𝗠 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘 - It’ll be a cold week starting Wednesday, but nothing we can’t handle. IF we manage to get some ice locally, it won’t be significant or cause long-lasting issues.
There is still some uncertainty to iron out in the coming days. These shallow/dense cold fronts can be tricky, and if we end up with colder temps than is currently expected, wintry weather could be a bigger conversation point. For now, it’s just worth monitoring. I’ll keep you posted
