11/12/2016
Omar Wasow
111016 at 2:13pm ·
A handful of additional observations:
1. Clinton won the most votes. I concede I was too confident that demographic change would grow her coalition and shrink Trump’s but it’s also important to note that he underperforms the last three GOP nominees in total votes (and US population has grown). And, most importantly, a majority of voters within the two major parties preferred her to Trump.
2. It’s better to be lucky than good. If the Comey email nontroversy cost Clinton one percent or so in the vote that would have been enough to tip Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Just holding the rust belt would have been enough to win the electoral college.
3. It’s better to be prepared for the worst. The Clinton campaign was, by most accounts, well run. They were clearly blindsided, though, by the weakness in support in the rust belt. It's also unclear if they incorporated voter suppression and plain old sexism reducing turnout into their models. Even if state-level polls were off (averages of national predictions were close), the Clinton campaign should have planned more for the possibility that something bad might happen (e.g., a terrorist attack) and cost her four or five points. If one takes those scenarios seriously, you never “expand the map” to Arizona. You absolutely visit Wisconsin. In short, 270 is everything.
4. Voter suppression works. It appears strict voter ID laws in Wisconsin and a few other key states could have made the difference in who won. This is one of the most distressing results of the election and shows just how important this fight will be going forward.
5. Identity trumps issues + competence. According to exit polls 61% of voters thought Trump was unfit but about a third of those voters supported him anyways. That's some crazy kind of bias that a dude can be so mediocre and still gets promoted as long as he’s on my team.
6. Our forebearers can guide the way. In my research I find that protests, particularly attention getting protests in which protesters are peaceful, can grow egalitarian coalitions, set political agendas and get good laws passed. We need to innovate in how we resist but resist we must.
