06/10/2026
In general, IOP members were not as accurate with their expectations regarding state taxes as they were with federal taxes. Most (74%) IOP members who expected a refund on their state taxes received one. Only half (49%) of the people who expected to owe state taxes were likely to be correct, with nearly that many (44%) actually receiving refunds. People who didn't expect to owe anything nor get a refund were more accurate on state taxes than federal, with 39% being correct about not having to pay or get a refund, but they were still a mixture of actual outcomes.