09/03/2026
September will be a month to watch as we transition from our hot/dry summer pattern to one driven by El Niño.
The month starts with late-summer heat holding on across the central and southern U.S., especially the central/southern Plains and mid/lower Mississippi Valley. That heat may hang on into the second week of September before the pattern shifts and relief becomes more likely.
Meanwhile, the West turns cooler and wetter. Monsoonal moisture, potentially mixed with tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific, could bring periods of heavy rain to the Southwest and West. Farther north, a stronger storm system may bring heavy rain and severe storms to the northern Rockies, northern Plains and Upper Midwest early in the month.
Looking at September as a whole, the precipitation outlook shown on the map favors a wetter month across much of the West, including California, the Southwest, the Intermountain West, and the Rockies. Wetter conditions are also favored around the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
Below-normal precipitation is favored across parts of the central Plains and central Mississippi Valley, where persistent heat and limited rainfall likely worsen ongoing drought before a wetter turn later in the month through October.
So the big September theme is a split pattern: cooler and wetter at times in much of the West, hot and relatively dry through the central U.S., but transitioning relatively soon. Matt Makens provides free updates for NCBA members. Visit makensweather.com/join to get the weekly updates.
