ClearValue Investing

ClearValue Investing The official page for Clear Value Investing. A professional space for serious investors focused on stocks, precious metals, and macro trends.

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French 30-year sovereign yields have surged to multi-decade highs above 5.0%.Persistent government overspending and poli...
10/07/2026

French 30-year sovereign yields have surged to multi-decade highs above 5.0%.

Persistent government overspending and political gridlock have eroded market patience. Investors are now aggressively discounting French paper, driving debt servicing obligations to levels that directly threaten Paris's long-term budget stability and broader Eurozone financial conditions.

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10/06/2026

Mortgage rates are anchored directly to the 10-year Treasury.

With 10-year government yields near 5.2%, investors demand a solid spread before taking on residential mortgage risk. That risk premium is why 30-year loans remain stuck above 7%. When risk-free paper pays this well, private borrowing costs face a rigid floor.

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China's physical gold buying is moving at record speed.Between January and August, China imported 1,141 tonnes of gold—a...
10/05/2026

China's physical gold buying is moving at record speed.

Between January and August, China imported 1,141 tonnes of gold—a record for this period. As geopolitical risks mount, Beijing is systematically rotating sovereign reserves out of dollar assets and into physical metal.

This isn't a short-term trade; it's a structural pivot.

Are you holding physical gold in your portfolio?

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10/03/2026

Trump claims tariffs will pay for a $5,000 dividend check to every US adult.

The fiscal reality tells a different story: cutting checks to ~240M adults requires $1.2 trillion. Total tariff revenue since 2025 sits at just ~$350B, with SCOTUS striking down most of them as illegal.

Tariffs fall roughly $850B short. If revenue can't cover it, it gets added directly to the national debt.

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US 30-year mortgage rates crossed back above 7.0%, locking up the housing market.Near-record home prices and 7%+ debt co...
10/02/2026

US 30-year mortgage rates crossed back above 7.0%, locking up the housing market.

Near-record home prices and 7%+ debt costs create the worst affordability squeeze in 40 years. Prospective buyers are hitting a wall on payments, while homeowners refuse to surrender their 3% pandemic paper—keeping inventory frozen solid.

The housing market can't normalize at these rates.

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10/01/2026

The US debt trajectory has reached a critical tipping point.

Federal interest expense now tops defense spending, eating up record tax receipts. With mandatory spending and debt service outrunning revenues, Washington is trapped issuing new debt simply to service old liabilities.

You can't out-borrow compounding interest.

Is fiscal dominance now dictating Fed policy?

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US 10-year Treasury yields are knocking on the 5.0% door again.Between non-stop debt issuance and sticky inflation, long...
09/30/2026

US 10-year Treasury yields are knocking on the 5.0% door again.

Between non-stop debt issuance and sticky inflation, long-term borrowing costs have nowhere to hide. When the risk-free rate sits this high, corporate balance sheets take a beating and stock valuations lose their cushion.

Higher for longer isn't talk anymore—it's on the tape.

Can equities really handle a breakout above 5%?

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09/29/2026

Trump promised a $5,000 dividend check to every US adult if the GOP sweeps midterms.

It’s basic math: with ~260M adult citizens, that carries a $1.3 trillion price tag. Pumping another trillion-dollar stimulus into an economy already facing persistent inflation and mounting deficits would trigger massive fiscal pressure.

Can the US budget handle another $1.3T stimulus check?

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Copper has broken into uncharted territory, surging toward $7.00/lb.It’s basic math: AI data centers, global electrifica...
09/28/2026

Copper has broken into uncharted territory, surging toward $7.00/lb.

It’s basic math: AI data centers, global electrification, and power grid expansions require massive amounts of copper that physical mines cannot supply. Developing a new deposit takes over a decade, leaving the market in a structural deficit.

The red metal supercycle is here.

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09/26/2026

Asked how rate hikes hit Americans pinched by high food and gas, Warsh replied: the Fed looks at aggregates, not distribution.

It’s basic math: nearly 50% of the country owns zero financial assets. While rate hikes and inflation squeeze household budgets through higher borrowing and living costs, monetary policy prioritizes macro aggregates.

Asset owners adapt; non-asset owners take the full hit.

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