01/22/2026
If you’re watching CRE in 2026… you can feel the “refi wall” getting close.
A LOT of commercial debt is maturing, and many of those loans were written in the 3–4% rate era. Refi today usually means higher debt service + lower appraisals + tighter DSCR.
That combo creates a very specific kind of distress:
Not always “bad buildings”… just loans that can’t get taken out.
Why distressed mortgage notes might be the next big opportunity:
• You can buy the paper at a discount when lenders want liquidity
• You control the workout: modify, extend, forbear, deed-in-lieu, or foreclosure
• You can get paid multiple ways (cashflow, payoff, reinstatement, or REO upside)
What I’m watching right now: maturity defaults, special servicing transfers, and “extend-and-pretend” loans finally hitting the end of the runway.
If you want to learn how we evaluate notes (and avoid rookie mistakes), comment “NOTES” and I’ll send info.
Stacey, be with EXP of Northern California INCDRE02149284
