10/20/2026
$MNQ Nasdaq futures — coiled between two magnets, 25 points apart
Price 29,750.50. Session VWAP 29,725.12. POC 29,627.75.
The six-timeframe regression ladder
Price versus each regression midline:
🟢 Daily 29,681.90 — +68.60 above
🟢 2-day 29,583.89 — +166.61 above
🟢 Weekly 29,403.90 — +346.60 above
🔴 Monthly 29,886.81 — −136.31 below
🔴 Quarterly 30,527.73 — −777.23 below
🔴 Yearly 30,631.72 — −881.22 below
Three and three. Every short window says healthy pullback, every long window says damage unrepaired. And the slopes confirm it: the weekly ladder is descending roughly 1,645 points across its span while the quarterly and yearly ladders still climb. Higher-timeframe uptrend intact — this is a correction inside it, not a reversal.
Supporting structure
VWAP ladder: 29,725.12 and 29,673.67 stacked within 51 points. EMA 29,674.60 sits inside that pair — three references in a 51-point band.
TPO high-volume nodes: 29,627.75 (19.0% of session volume) and 29,876.50 (13.4%). Value area proxy 29,525 – 29,825. Price is in its upper third, and still below the month/quarter-anchored VWAP at 30,628.46 by 2.95%.
Probabilities — 21-day realised vol 0.934%/day, reflection principle, touch odds not close-beyond, driftless model
Within one session:
29,818.73 → 81%
29,886.81 → 62%
29,983.25 → 40%
30,224.50 → 8.8%
29,725.12 → 93%
29,673.67 → 78%
29,627.75 → 66%
29,583.89 → 55%
29,202.00 → 4.8%
Within one week:
29,818.73 → 91%
29,983.25 → 71%
30,224.50 → 45%
29,627.75 → 84%
29,583.89 → 70%
29,202.00 → 38%
Race odds — which barrier gets touched first
29,818.73 up vs 29,725.12 down → 53.5% up / 46.5% down
29,818.73 up vs 29,627.75 down → 72.9% up / 27.1% down
29,983.25 up vs 29,202.00 down → 29.8% up / 70.2% down
That last line is the honest one: the near-term coin flip favours a poke higher, but the wide-barrier race favours the downside. Balance-day behaviour — price gets pulled between the VWAP cluster above and the POC below.
Two cases
📈 Bull — hold 29,725.12 and reclaim 29,818.73. That level is also the value-area top, so it's a genuine value-area breakout rather than just a band tag → 29,983.25 (71% within a week), then 30,224.50.
📉 Bear — lose 29,725.12 and the POC at 29,627.75 becomes the magnet at 66% one-session / 84% one-week. Below that 29,583.89 (2-day regression), then VAL ~29,525.
Risk framing
Shelf long: entry 29,680.34 · stop 29,570 · T1 29,818.73 (1.26R) · T2 29,983.25 (2.76R) · T3 30,224.50 (4.95R)
Breakout long: entry 29,825 · stop 29,700 · T1 29,983.25 (1.27R) · T2 30,224.50 (3.20R)
The shelf long is the better structure — 91% odds of reaching T1 within a week against a 110-point stop. The breakout is the half-size insurance policy for the dip that never comes.
⚠️ Model outputs under a driftless random walk; touch odds, not odds of a profitable trade; no news or event adjustment. Educational, not financial advice.
