06/17/2024
**Understanding New Home Construction Trends**
You might have heard that there are more brand-new homes available now than usual. Approximately one in three homes currently on the market is newly built. But what does this mean for the housing market and your own plans? Let's break it down.
**Why It's Not Like 2008**
People still remember the housing market crash of 2008. One contributing factor was an oversupply of homes for sale. While not all of that oversupply came from builders, the impact remains. Some folks feel uneasy when they hear about increased new home construction.
However, this year's data shows that there's no cause for concern. Builders aren't overdoing it; they're merely catching up. The graph below, based on Census data, illustrates the number of new houses built over the past 52 years. After the 2008 crash, there was a prolonged period of underbuilding (depicted in red). Only recently did we reach the long-term average for annual home construction.
This indicates that even with recent growth in new builds, there won't suddenly be an oversupply of homes for sale. The gap from over a decade of underbuilding is substantial. And if you're still concerned about overbuilding, here's reassuring news.
**New Home Construction at Its Peak for the Year**
Recent Census data on housing starts (homes where builders broke ground) and permits (homes where development can begin soon) reveals that builders are currently slowing down. Why? They're responding to high mortgage rates and their impact on buyer demand. In other words, they're adjusting appropriately to market conditions.
As an article from Housing Wire explains:
*"Even with a massive housing shortage across the nation, homebuilders are completing their pipelines and not seeking as many permits to construct new single-family houses."*
Builders remember the consequences of overbuilding during the crash, so they're being cautious.
**More Options Now vs. Later**
If you're considering a newly built home, here's how this affects you. With fewer permits and less groundbreaking, we may be at the peak of new home construction for the year. This doesn't mean construction is stopping—it's just slowing down. That will impact what becomes available later in the year. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), notes:
*"Given the recent declines in housing starts, home completions will steadily decrease in about six months."*
If you're ready to buy, you'll likely find more newly built options now than later. Consider working with a local real estate agent who knows the market well. They can guide you based on builder reputations and other factors. And if there's limited new construction nearby, they'll point you toward neighboring areas.
**In Summary**
While new home construction is a larger segment of the market than usual, it's not a negative sign. Builders are responding to market signals, avoiding the mistakes of 2008. If you're interested in buying while options are plentiful, feel free to reach out—I'm here to assist! 😊