08/12/2026
Here’s the data behind that shift. Stanford’s AI Index found that running a model at GPT-3.5’s level of performance cost $20 per million tokens in November 2022. By October 2024, it cost $0.07, roughly 280 times cheaper in under two years, and prices have kept falling since.
When raw capability gets this cheap, it stops being scarce. And whatever stops being scarce stops being an advantage. Every serious competitor now has access to intelligence that used to cost a fortune. So the competition has moved to what money can’t buy as easily, consistency.
This isn’t a new story. Car makers didn’t stay differentiated by horsepower once every manufacturer could build a fast engine, they started competing on reliability. Cloud providers didn’t stay differentiated by storage capacity once storage got cheap, they started competing on uptime. AI is running the same playbook, just faster.
The products winning in 2026 aren’t the ones announcing the biggest model. They’re the ones customers stop thinking about, because it just works.
Where is your industry still selling size, when the market already started buying reliability?