07/20/2026
I love a good prediction. I've cashed in on Kalshi bets myself. Go England! Go Cape Verde! 🇬🇧🇨🇻
But this latest announcement has me giving Kalshi the side-eye.
They just launched prediction markets on Phase 3 trial outcomes and FDA approvals.
Here's the problem: we already know what happens when the crowd includes someone with inside access.
Trump's teleprompter operator is currently under federal investigation for allegedly pocketing over $100,000 betting on Kalshi's "Mentions" markets, using advance knowledge of what the president was about to say. He knew the script before anyone else did. Then he traded on it.
Now picture that same setup, but the script is unblinded trial data. And the person holding it works at the CRO, the site, or the sponsor.
Kalshi does have guardrails in place: late-stage trials only, employment verification, predetermined resolution rules. That's a real attempt to get ahead of the problem.
I still wouldn't bet the house on those guardrails holding once real money is on the line.
Who's taking that bet? 👇