09/18/2025
Following weeks of weak labor market data, the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected quarter-point rate cut today, taking the federal funds target range to 4.00%-4.25% and marking the start of a new easing cycle. Markets have seen this before: in September 2024, the Fed initiated rate cuts from a 5.5% ceiling with an initial 50-basis-point move, followed by two additional quarter-point reductions. Yet instead of a smooth decline, the 10-year Treasury yield surged roughly 120 basis points between September and December 2024, reversing its pre-cut decline.
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Following weeks of weak labor market data, the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected quarter-point rate cut today, taking the federal funds target range to 4.00%-4.25% and marking the start of a new easing cycle. Markets have seen this before: in September 2024, the Fed initiated rate cuts fro...