Fortunerst Securities

11/27/2025

Fed Governor Christopher Waller has expressed support for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting in late October 2025. He cites signs of weakening in the U.S. job market—even as inflation remains relatively stable. Waller also emphasized that larger cuts (for example, 50 bps) are off the table unless labor and inflation data deteriorate further.

Waller and Chair Jerome Powell view current economic indicators as mixed: strong growth and business investment in some sectors, but softening job demand and hiring. The governor’s position reflects a cautious pivot—prioritizing employment concerns while maintaining vigilance against inflation risks. Markets largely expect the Fed to act but are closely watching whether any shift in guidance reflects broader openness to stimulus or patience.

🔗 Source: Reuters – https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-waller-favors-25-basis-point-rate-cut-october-amid-job-market-worries-2025-10-16/

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he favors another interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank's policy meeting later this month because of worrisome labor market developments, while a colleague again made the case for an even more aggressive path of cuts.

11/25/2025

A recent Harris Poll for The Guardian reveals that 75% of Americans believe that prices are rising significantly—even though official inflation numbers have fallen from peaks. Many households report monthly cost increases between $100-$749, especially for necessities.

Though inflation has cooled to around 2.9% (from heights above 9% in previous years), it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Public sentiment is deeply negative: over half think the country is already in a recession, with more than 50% saying the economy is worsening. Economic anxiety cuts across political lines, although people differ on what issues matter most beyond inflation (e.g. tariffs, immigration).

The gap between lived cost-of-living pressures and macroeconomic data may make managing expectations harder for policymakers.

🔗 Source: The Guadian – https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/16/inflation-economic-pessimism-poll

11/20/2025

The U.S. government has expressed strong concern over China’s proposed export controls on critical minerals and rare earths, warning that such policies may force global supply chains to decouple from China.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the U.S. Trade Representative argue that requiring licenses for products containing trace amounts of materials from China constitutes economic coercion.
The measures risk disrupting sectors dependent on these supply chains—semiconductors, electronics, and advanced tech industries. In response, the U.S. is exploring retaliatory trade measures and urging allied nations to diversify supply sources. The situation has led to renewed geopolitical tension—potential tariffs, diplomatic friction, and strategic realignments loom ahead of key international summits. The U.S. maintains that upholding openness and limiting economic coercion are essential for global trade stability.

🔗 Source: Financial Times – https://www.ft.com/content/15a957a7-104e-431a-807e-441e5c2c753f

Scott Bessent says Washington will retaliate if Beijing proceeds with policy on rare earths and critical minerals

11/18/2025

U.S. financial regulators are preparing a proposal to ease capital requirements for community banks by adjusting the community bank leverage ratio (CBLR).
The proposed change would allow banks to use a simplified standard (the CBLR) instead of more complex risk-based capital calculations. Under the proposal, the leverage ratio requirement could be lowered from 9% to 8% for those opting in.
The move is aimed at supporting smaller banks to lend more freely, particularly in markets underserved by larger institutions. It comes amid concerns that stringent capital rules and compliance costs have been limiting lending capacity. The Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC are collaborating on this, with public comment expected before finalizing any changes. Advocates argue that community banks, which serve local businesses and households, will benefit directly—potentially aiding local economic activity. However, opponents caution about ensuring safety and soundness, noting that lower capital buffers may increase vulnerability to economic stress.

🔗 Source: Reuters – https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/us-regulators-poised-offer-capital-relief-community-banks-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-10-15/

US regulators are set to release a plan to encourage small banks to lend more by easing a set of capital requirements, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

11/14/2025

The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown has been estimated by the Treasury Department to cost the economy up to $15 billion per week in lost output. The estimate comes from the White House Council of Economic Advisers. The shutdown is already hurting confidence, especially in sectors depending on federal operations or funding. One highlight is how the shutdown is dampening the ongoing investment momentum in areas like infrastructure or emerging technologies.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also noted the fiscal deficit for 2025 is shrinking compared to prior year but emphasized the risk that unchecked government spending and political gridlock could derail goals of reducing the deficit-to-GDP ratio to near 3%. The report underscores that even short disruptions in government operations can ripple into broader economic metrics—investment, consumer confidence, and business planning.
🔗 Source: Reuters – https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-investment-boom-is-sustainable-bessent-says-2025-10-15/

It corrected an earlier statement from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

11/13/2025

U.S. banks borrowed $6.5 billion from the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF)—the largest use since the pandemic period (excluding quarter-ends). This surge signals rising liquidity stress in short-term funding markets. Overnight repurchase (repo) rates peaked at 4.36%, before settling around 4.12%, up from previous levels. Analysts attribute much of the strain to large Treasury settlements (e.g. $40 billion and $23 billion on consecutive days), which divert cash from the private sector into the Treasury’s Federal Reserve account, thereby tightening liquidity.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged signs of tightening financial conditions, and noted that quantitative tightening may be nearing its conclusion. Observers are now watching how upcoming policy decisions will respond—whether the Fed will ease measures, maintain current stances, or adjust collateral and market operations. The repo facility usage underscores potential fragility in short-term markets, especially if stress spreads to other funding channels.
🔗 Source: Reuters – https://www.reuters.com/business/us-banks-tap-fed-repo-facility-overnight-rates-climb-signaling-funding-strain-2025-10-15/

U.S. banks borrowed $6.5 billion from the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) on Wednesday, central bank data showed, and repurchase rates rose, suggesting tightness in meeting funding obligations with a large net Treasuries settlement due this week.

11/06/2025

A recent report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the U.S. economy remains vulnerable to renewed tariff pressures and persistent labor shortages. While short-term performance has exceeded expectations, the Fund cautions that rising trade barriers and restrictive immigration policies could weigh on future growth.
According to the report, limited access to skilled labor and higher input costs from tariffs may dampen business investment and consumer spending through 2026. The IMF projects U.S. growth to ease from 2.8% in 2025 to around 2.0% next year if current policies remain unchanged. Labor market tightness could also lead to wage inflation, further complicating the Federal Reserve’s path to stable price growth.
The IMF urged policymakers to focus on restoring trade certainty and improving labor force participation. Businesses are advised to diversify supply chains and adopt long-term workforce strategies to manage risks amid an evolving global landscape.
🔗 Source: MarketWatch – https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-economy-still-vulnerable-to-tariff-shocks-imf-says-and-labor-shortages-tied-to-immigration-crackdown-could-also-sting-8987be99

The U.S. economy hasn’t suffered much so far from big increases in tariffs or a decline in the labor supply due to tighter immigration rules. But that might change.

11/04/2025

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently addressed the state of U.S. monetary policy, reassuring markets that temporary fluctuations in the Fed’s net interest income do not constrain policy actions. He emphasized that the central bank remains fully capable of implementing measures to anchor inflation expectations and support employment objectives.
Powell highlighted that the Fed continues to monitor economic indicators closely, including inflation trends, labor market conditions, and financial stability. While challenges such as evolving market volatility and fiscal pressures persist, the central bank’s credibility remains intact. He stressed that proactive communication and flexibility are key tools for navigating potential economic headwinds.
The remarks aim to reinforce confidence among investors, businesses, and households that the Fed can maintain price stability and guide the economy through uncertain conditions. Powell’s emphasis on measured, data-driven policy suggests a steady approach to balancing growth, inflation, and employment targets.
🔗 Source: Federal Reserve – https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20251014a.htm

10/30/2025

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released revised GDP figures for 2025, revealing a nuanced economic picture. First-quarter real GDP was revised downward to a 0.6% contraction, primarily due to weaker investment, exports, and government spending. However, consumer spending showed resilience, cushioning the overall decline.
The second-quarter GDP, in contrast, was revised upward to a 3.8% growth rate, highlighting uneven momentum across the economy. This patchwork recovery underscores the sensitivity of U.S. growth to global trade dynamics, monetary policy, and fiscal stability. Analysts note that while households remain strong drivers of demand, businesses face continued challenges from supply chain pressures and investment hesitancy.
Economists caution that these mixed signals require careful monitoring, as uneven growth could increase vulnerability to external shocks. The revisions highlight the importance of strategic policy decisions and prudent financial planning to sustain economic momentum throughout the year.
🔗 Source: BEA – https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-third-estimate-gdp-industry-corporate-profits

10/30/2025

文案：
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its 2025 growth projection for the U.S. economy to 2.0%, citing stronger-than-expected consumer spending and corporate activity. While trade tensions and supply chain disruptions remain challenges, domestic demand has provided a stabilizing effect, helping the economy absorb external shocks.
The IMF highlighted that uncertainty in trade policy continues to affect business confidence and investment decisions. Companies are adjusting their strategies to manage tariffs and changing import-export dynamics, which could influence growth in certain sectors. Meanwhile, labor market conditions remain relatively robust, supporting household income and consumption.
Despite the upward revision, the IMF cautions that structural issues—such as regulatory shifts, potential fiscal imbalances, and global economic volatility—could limit growth in the medium term. Policymakers are encouraged to maintain supportive measures while preparing for potential external shocks to sustain the recovery.
🔗 Source: AP News – https://apnews.com/article/world-economy-imf-ac044f69806501a19ccc6234d25b4ca2

The U.S. and global economies will grow a bit more this year than previously forecast as the Trump administration’s tariffs have so far proved less disruptive than expected, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday, though the full impact of those policies is still emerging.

10/30/2025

Recent economic data shows a strong wave of investment across the United States, particularly in infrastructure, technology, and manufacturing sectors. Economists suggest this momentum could mark the start of a sustained growth cycle rather than a short-term rebound. Robust capital spending is being supported by favorable fiscal policies, business confidence, and ongoing consumer resilience.
However, analysts also caution that rising inflation pressures, supply chain disruptions, and a prolonged government shutdown could threaten the momentum. Daily economic losses from the shutdown are estimated to reach billions, dampening productivity and investor sentiment. The long-term outlook hinges on whether policymakers can maintain stability while supporting innovation and job creation.
If managed effectively, the current surge could lay the groundwork for a durable expansion—anchored by modernized infrastructure and digital transformation. But if external shocks persist or fiscal coordination weakens, the investment wave could lose steam, leading to uneven growth ahead.
🔗 Source: Reuters – https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-investment-boom-is-sustainable-bessent-says-2025-10-15/