Horizon Engage

09/05/2024

This week, we’re covering some countries with money troubles and others celebrating major wins:

In , the NNPC finally admitted to what everyone already knew: It’s having some serious money troubles.

One of ’s energy problems may just have a solution thanks to Energy Minister George Papanastasiou

A small town in gave the green light for a mining project, signaling a new wave of public support for mining.

This week’s Quote of the Week comes from our director of , Andrew Farrand.

In Nigeria, the NNPC finally admitted to what everyone already knew: It’s having some serious money troubles, while Cyprus and Argentina saw some recent wins.

09/03/2024

Senior Advisor Mark S. Langevin, Ph.D. shares some thoughts on Lula’s green dream:

’s President has always devised national policies and programs to affirm his values and frame priorities.

This month, his administration took additional steps in this direction to articulate a national energy transition strategy ahead of the in Baku, Azerbaijan, hoping to grab the headlines and elevate his stature at the global climate governance gathering.

https://horizonengage.com/2024/09/03/lula-leans-into-the-energy-transition/

08/29/2024

This week, we’re covering some recent shifts in (political) power sources:

's President-elect selected Victor Rodriguez as Pemex’s next CEO.

In , a state chief minister is trying to show PM Modi is not the only one who can make big strides in clean energy.

The tense power struggle over ’s Central Bank continues to become increasingly precarious.

This week’s Quote of the Week is also on theme: the now-former Managing Director of ’s National Petroleum Company, Immanuel Mulunga, weighed on his dismissal.

Recent shifts in (political) power sources: Pemex’s next CEO in Mexico, an Indian state moves on clean energy and the struggle over Libya’s Central Bank.

08/22/2024

This week, we’re covering emerging players in different institutions across the globe:

hashtag authorities in hashtag announced a new “Change and Construction” cabinet, but not much has changed at all.

Elmar Nascimento has emerged as the frontrunner for hashtag ’s next speaker of the Chamber of Deputies.

hashtag ’s new energy minister could accelerate the rollout of new ministerial CCS regulations.

This week’s quote of the week is from Serbian activists protesting lithium mining, an issue that has become central to the EU’s green transition agenda. Read more below.

This week, we’re covering emerging players in different institutions across the globe from the Houthis in Yemen, Brazil's Chamber of Deputies and Indonesia CCS.

08/21/2024

Our Senior Advisor Rachel Ziemba shared some thoughts on nearshoring (in Mexico) and USMCA in ForeignPolicy on both scaling limitations, role of China and potential trade negotiations in the next admin.

Foreign direct investment in the country’s manufacturing sector is up—for now.

08/15/2024

This week, On Our Radar is covering leadership changes and challenges:

Mexican President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum selected the next leader of the Federal Electricity Commission.

Cote d’Ivoire’s political opposition is starting to form alliances ahead of the 2025 presidential election, though we doubt Ouattara feels much of a threat.

The state-owned Indian Oil Corporation Ltd canceled a tender to build a green hydrogen plant for the second time.

This week’s Quote of the Week is from Kamala Harris, and it might sound familiar … read more below!

https://horizonengage.com/2024/08/15/leadership-changes-and-challenges/

08/09/2024

This week, On Our Radar is covering:

will begin accepting applications for a hydrogen subsidy, including for clean hydrogen already subsidized elsewhere.

has found its seventh European customer for gas in Slovenia, encroaching on Russia’s old turf.

’s president is in hot water over the ongoing LNG terminal turmoil and has vowed to punish those responsible for its mishandling.

This week’s Quote of the Week comes from Argentina’s former president this time, Mauricio Macri, who reminded Milei that he’d like to be wooed before pledging his party’s alliance for next year’s midterm elections.

Read more below.

Japan's new clean hydrogen subsidy, Azerbaijan finds a new European customer for gas, and Cyprus's president is in hot water over over the LNG terminal.

08/05/2024

Horizon Engage's Clementine Wallop, Director, Sub-Saharan Africa spoke to Bloomberg about a story we're watching closely: the dispute between the Nigerian government and billionaire businessman Aliko Dangote, whose refinery in Lagos State could produce gasoline this month.

The government on Monday offered to sell Dangote 445,000 barrels a day of crude in naira rather than dollars, in a move that would ease pressure on the nation’s strained foreign exchange reserves. The offer “has the potential to make one part of the situation easier — which is access to cash for crude feedstock — it also looks like an attempt at rapprochement,” said Clementine Wallop, director for sub-Saharan Africa at political-risk consultant Horizon Engage.

“However, it doesn’t address the bad blood resulting from these weeks of dispute,” she said. It’s also not yet clear that Dangote will accept the offer.

Subscribers to our Country Insights service for can read more about how we see the row playing out, and signals to watch in the coming weeks.

Politicians praised the $20 billion project as an economic gamechanger but a feud with the government highlights the difficulty of changing a dysfunctional system that rewards powerful interests

08/01/2024

Tensions in the Middle East climbed higher this week, escalating fears of regional war. How would such a conflict impact North Africa and its energy sector? We break down who is likely to see the greatest upside and downside, and what it could mean for investors.

What would an all-out regional war pitting Israel and it's Western allies against Iran and its Axis of Resistance mean for North Africa and its energy sector?

08/01/2024

In this week's On Our Radar newsletter, we’re covering:

Two of Libya’s expired parliamentary bodies met and forged a deal to produce a new roadmap to elections — with little detail and no UN approval.

Aliyev’s criticism of the EU’s commitments to gas deals and other complications ahead of COP29.

Brazil and the US signed a new climate partnership, which may be short-lived depending on who gets elected in November.

This week’s Quote of the Week comes from Argentine President Javier Milei, who had some personal things to say about political rival Azel Kicillof.

Read more below!
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/drama-brokers-horizonengage-98sse/

07/30/2024

Horizon Engage Cofounder and Head of Research Alexander Zaslavsky shares two key takeaways from our new Trump 2.0 and MENA report, which analyzes the impact of a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House on the region, including the winners, losers and wildcards.

Between now and the U.S. elections in November, Horizon Engage will be exploring what a second Trump administration would mean for foreign investment in emerging markets and the global energy sector.

Follow Horizon Engage's Trump 2.0 series and get the latest report below.
https://geopolitics.horizonengage.com/trump-and-mena-sm

07/29/2024

Horizon Engage's Rachel Ziemba, Senior Advisor, spoke with S&P Global's Commodity Insights about the Venezuelan elections and US oil sanctions:

The Venezuelan election is not going to move the oil market much given the country’s relatively small production range in the near-term.

Increased output after sanctions relief could have modest downward impacts on price, but these would be outweighed by global factors in the oil market, Ziemba said.

“They could have a greater impact on the relative discounts of blends that compete with Venezuelan crude such as Western Canada Select, which also tends to be vulnerable at times of bearish sentiment in the market,” she said.