AQUA Opinion and Policy Research Group

03/28/2023

Can’t argue with science. 😉

Effect Size

Subgroup analysis is ongoing.

02/04/2022

Don’t be counfounded by residuals - contact us for all your research and data analysis needs.

12/21/2020

The best data require no analysis. 😁

Statistics

We reject the null hypothesis based on the 'hot damn, check out this chart' test.

07/20/2020

At Aqua Research, we are all in favor of doing the math.

In 25 of the 33 states that saw reported Covid-19 cases increase between May and July, the count rose because there was actually more disease.

07/13/2020

Math is our friend.

The use of masks as a means of reducing transmission of COVID-19 outside healthcare settings has proved controversial. Masks are thought to have two m…

05/09/2020

Except for New York City, the United States still hasn’t reached its peak for Covid-19 cases. That’s very troubling for the “reopen the country” movement.

It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope is also predictable. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, that would mean that if we stay locked down, we lose anothe...

03/10/2020

The polling doesn’t bode well for Sanders; there won’t be any “Michigan Miracle” this year. Sanders winning Michigan by a small margin is already baked into the math; he’d have to win by at close to 60-40 in order to set the lace he needs to be on to win or even make it an open convention.

“Terrific Tuesday: Based on delegate totals awarded so far, and allocations by state the rest of the way, if every state from here on breaks the same way for Sanders that they did in 2016, Biden will have over 2100 delegates going into Milwaukee.”

03/02/2020

If people thought fewer candidates would make the Dem nomination situation clearer, well, let’s just say that things sometimes have unintended consequences.

“Irony: Buttigieg dropping out makes it *less* likely that any one candidate gets a first-ballot majority, because now it’s *more* likely that other candidates will get 15% of the vote in the upcoming states.”

02/21/2020

Polling aggregators on tomorrow’s Democratic caucuses in Nevada.

“24Hrs To: NV D RCP has Sanders 29.0, Biden 16.0, Buttigieg & Warren 14.0, Klobuchar & Steyer 10.5. 538 predicts Sanders 35, Buttigieg 17, Biden 16, Warren 13, Steyer 10, Klobuchar 9. RCP estimates initial vote, 538 is trying to predict county del totals. https://t.co/dn0byBy3pn”

02/11/2020

Check us out on Twitter!

“24 Hrs To: NH Dem RealClearPolitics has Sanders 28.7, Buttigieg 21.3 Klobuchar 11.7 Warren 11.0 Biden 11.0 No one else close to 15% delegate threshold. 538 has Sanders 28, Buttigieg 23, Warren 14, Biden 13, Klobuchar 10. https://t.co/5boppftK1y”

02/05/2020

https://twitter.com/AquaResearch/status/1224932758931283968

“Something worth noting: NYT returns list 11 candidates, plus “Uncommitted” and “Other”. Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren, “Uncommitted” and “Other” increased their vote totals from the 1st round to the 2nd. Does not bode well for a certain former VP. https://t.co/ISDGNeCmXS”