Kurt R Metzger & Associates

02/10/2022

POVERTY IS A CRITICAL METRIC, BUT MUST BE EXPANDED!

In late January, Business Leaders for Michigan (BLM) released its updated benchmarking report comparing Michigan’s performance against the Top 10 states. The metrics include traditional output metrics such as GDP, median household income and business climate perception, and add growth and economic health indicators such as education, labor force participation, net migration, poverty, and business creation. These updated metrics provide a more holistic view of how well all Michiganders are succeeding rather than just a snapshot of the state’s economy.

Bankole Thompson, opinion writer for the Detroit News and longtime advocate of the importance of convening conversations around poverty, applauds its inclusion in his latest column titled, “Business leaders are putting poverty front and center.” He quotes the CEO of BLM, Jeff Donofrio, as saying “So not only is it a moral imperative to help those in poverty, businesses know we can’t afford to leave anyone behind if we want to maintain and grow our economy.”

Cindy Pasky, the president and CEO of Strategic Staffing Solutions, drives the issue home: “Poverty, like any other yardstick for the economy as a whole, should be included in metrics that the state monitors. Just as we measure employment, median household income or wealth, poverty is an indication of a region’s or state’s overall health.”

While I strongly support the inclusion of a Poverty Metric, I would like to see that metric expanded to account for Race and Ethnicity. The report shows that Michigan ranks 34th in the nation with a Poverty Rate of 13.0 percent. If we break that down into its racial/ethnic components, we see the following:

1. We tie for 35th for white, non-Hispanic poverty with a rate of 9.8 percent
2. We rank 31st for African American poverty with a rate of 25.9 percent (only 42 states have sufficient population)
3. We rank 43rd for Hispanic/Latino poverty with a rate of 22.2 percent (all but Vermont have sufficient population)
4. We tie for 22nd for Asian poverty with a rate of 10.6 percent (only 40 states have sufficient population)
5. We rank 19th for Native American poverty with a rate of 24.6 percent (only 30 states have sufficient population)

If we are truly committed to tracking “a region’s or state’s overall health,” we need to know how ALL segments of our population are doing. We cannot celebrate a reduction in overall poverty, if the GAPS that we see between the races show no change. (The AA poverty rate is 2.64 times that of whites)

While I applaud the expansion of the BLM metrics, I call for them to take those metrics that can be broken out by race and ethnicity and track them as well.

Michigan has progressed over the last decade, but needs strategic improvements to become competitive DETROIT— Business Leaders for Michigan today …

01/26/2022

WE NEED MORE TEACHERS OF COLOR IN OUR SCHOOLS

Research has shown that children - particularly young children - need role models, and that teachers are at the top of that list. More specifically, that research has shown for years (see the attached link) that Black teachers improve the outcomes of black children. A corollary to this is the further importance of Black Male teachers for young Black boys being brought up in single parent families with few male role models in their lives.

"The best contemporary research reinforces what historical anecdotes reveal. Black teachers today are, by nearly every metric, more successful at supporting the achievement and well-being of Black children. Black students who have even one Black teacher during elementary school are more likely to graduate high school and consider college. Black students with Black teachers experience less exclusionary discipline and fewer office visits, a crucial break in the school-to-prison pipeline, a disturbing and widespread trend in which school-discipline interactions lead to interactions with the criminal justice system. And it is not only Black students who benefit from being taught by Black teachers; research has shown that students of color believe teachers of the same race hold them to higher expectations and are more culturally sensitive than their white counterparts. These skills and mindsets are critical, especially now, as Black students face a new wave of trauma initiated by police violence against Black bodies, and schools grapple with the ways in which they often perpetuate racist systems."

A quick look at Michigan and the tri-county ISDs during the 2020-21 school year (latest available) illustrates the gap that exits.

Statewide, African American children account for 17.7 percent of all public education K-12 students (including charters), while African American teachers represent 7.0 percent of all teachers. (For Latinos, the numbers are 8.4 and 1.2 percent, respectively.

In Oakland Schools, African American children account for 19.4 percent of the total student enrollment, while only 6.9 percent of teachers are African American. These ratios vary a great deal across districts.

In Macomb County the gap is HUGE - 19.6 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. Wayne RESA’s shares are 41.3 percent and 25.5 percent, respectively.

This has been an amazingly tough two years for teachers, with many deciding to retire or leave for other job opportunities. Reports show that Black teachers are leaving the profession at “staggering rates.”

Michigan ranks poorly on a number of educational outcome measures. Teacher recruitment and training – particularly teachers and administrators of color - MUST become an educational priority.

03/26/2020

Oakland County Population Trends in 2 Charts

The Census Bureau released 2019 population estimates for all counties and metropolitan areas in the country today.
Population change has 4 components that contribute: Births, Deaths, Immigration and Domestic migration.
This post looks at how these components have played out in Oakland County between 2000 and 2019. I will follow this up tomorrow with Macomb and Wayne.

The 2019 Oakland County population is estimated at 1,257,584. It’s 2018-19 growth was the second lowest of the decade at 890, and less one-sixth of the average annual growth of 6,053 this decade. Let's look at what is going on with our 4 components.

Chart 1 shows that Births have been decreasing steadily since 2000 (actually since 1990), although they have stabilized this decade. Due to the county's aging population, Deaths have shown continuous growth. The result is a Natural Increase figure that has fallen by 30 percent this decade.

On the migration front (Chart 2), Immigration, which has been a strong contributor to Oakland County's growth, has succumbed to national forces and dropped by 38.3 percent in the last 2 years. Domestic Migration, which has shown a great deal of variability over the last two decades (both positive and negative), marked the sixth straight year in the negative column - more people leaving the county for other parts of Michigan and the country than are coming in.

While Oakland County continues to grow, its aging population, coupled with the factors that we are witnessing with these trends, future growth remains a question mark.

02/10/2020

Record Number of Deaths in Michigan, Combined With 77-Year Low in Births, Result in 2018 Bringing Smallest Natural Increase in State History!

Population growth for any governmental entity, be it state, county, city, etc., depends on a combination of migration (both domestic and international) and natural increase (births minus deaths).

Recent data show clearly that Michigan is losing on all fronts. While there is no doubt that Michigan will lose another Congressional seat after the 2020 Census (in spite of what I hope will be an unprecedented effort to get an accurate count), any forecast based on current trends must be one of minimal growth moving forward.

2019 population estimates from the Census Bureau brought increased domestic out-migration and decreased immigration. The increase in people leaving for other parts of the country were mirrored by annual moving reports from both United and Atlas Van Lines (I will be writing about those data soon.). While we are a perennial out-migrant state, this component varies enough that a concerted effort on the part of state and local leadership could help to minimize the losses. The decrease in immigration, however, is the result of national policies that are affecting all states. We must work to become a secondary destination for immigrants who have started out elsewhere.

The area of biggest concern is the continuous drop in natural increase. As recently as 1990 (see chart), we had 74,579 more births than death in the state. The latest, recently published, data for 2018 show that number has fallen to 11,108 - a DECREASE OF 85 PERCENT! This is a record that no one, except adherents of Zero Population Growth, should celebrate.

The culprit is an aging population, combined with the national trends of decreasing birthrates across all segments of the population (except women over 40 yeas of age). The song for Michigan is the same – it must retain and attract residents in their 20s and 30s, preferably with a college degree, but beggars can’t be choosers.

What are the answers?????????

12/03/2018

Great article on the future of Michigan’s Congressional delegation.

A new redistricting commission is expected to decide which part of Michigan will lose a U.S. House seat as it redraws political boundaries statewide.

12/03/2018

Michigan Births in 2017 Are Lowest Since World War II!

Provisional birth numbers for 2017 (little change anticipated before becoming final) show Michigan births at 111,468. This represents the lowest birth total since the end of WWII in 1945 when the total was 111,557. This is made all the more problematic when you realize Michigan's total population in 1945 was 5,435,092, while 2017's was 83 percent higher, at 9,962,311.

A number of the reasons for decreasing births are shared by other parts of the country - decreases in teen births; women waiting longer to both marry and have children (not necessarily tied to one another) due to increased educational attainment and workforce participation; and, the tendency to have fewer children than in decades past.

Michigan brings additional issues to its table. While we are relatively diverse, we still remain 75 percent white, non-Hispanic, with African Americans comprising 13.6 percent of the total and Hispanics accounting for only 5.1 percent. However, our biggest problem is our lack of in-migration and our aging population. Our population growth tends to be concentrated in age cohorts above 45 years, while our child-bearing cohorts continue to decrease.

These startling birth numbers clearly illustrate the problems we will have growing our economy in the future, much less filling our existing jobs. We must advocate for increasing immigration at the national level, while continuing efforts to retain and attract young talent.

Future posts will look at birth trends across the state. Here's a teaser. While births dropped between 2016 and 2017 across most areas of the state, the City of Detroit showed growth (a sign of total growth when 2018 estimates are released?).