06/05/2026
Bookmakers have Charles Leclerc as the Monaco favorite.
My model has him third.
Polymarket: 30%
DraftKings: 33%
My model: 14.6%
(And yes — I considered the FIA compression ratio rule taking effect this
weekend. Monaco’s the least power-sensitive track on the calendar. Spain
in two weeks is where it’ll actually matter.)
Either I’m wrong, or the market is.
We’ll know Sunday.
Predict it yourself: polepositionapp.com
Sources in pinned comment.