10/06/2024
From Jonathan Daniell:
Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico and should become a hurricane later today. It is forecast to rapidly intensify as it moves towards Florida over the next few days. The current National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Milton to make landfall as a powerful major hurricane near Tampa, Sarasota, or Fort Meyers on Wednesday.
Impacts from Milton will be possible in far Southeast Georgia, mainly in counties across southern GEMA/HS areas 5 and 8. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds may move into these counties on Wednesday morning and continue through Thursday morning. Significant storm surge and tornadoes are not expected in Georgia with this system. It is important not to focus on whether an area is in the forecast cone or not — like with Helene, impacts will be felt hundreds of miles from the center of the storm.
Tropical storm force wind gusts will be possible in extreme southeastern Georgia counties (Camden, Glynn, McIntosh, Charlton, and Ware) with gusts of 30-40 mph possible between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. Even though wind gusts should remain below 30 mph for the rest of South Georgia, this could still hamper recovery efforts and bring down weakened trees on Wednesday and Thursday.
There is already some light rain moving through South Georgia. This is not associated with Milton and should diminish by tomorrow morning. An additional 2-4 inches of rainfall will be possible in the following counties on Wednesday and Thursday: Echols, Clinch, Ware, Brantley, Pierce, Wayne, McIntosh, Glynn, Charlton, and Camden. Camden, Glynn, and Charlton Counties could receive up to 6 inches of rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday. While flash flooding is unlikely for most of South Georgia, areas that receive the highest rainfall totals (likely Camden, Glynn, and Charlton) could see some isolated flooding concerns on Wednesday and Thursday.
Milton has the potential to devastate parts of Florida, particularly around Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Sarasota, and Fort Myers. Southeast Georgia is the only part of the state expected to receive any impacts from Milton. However, because several of these counties are still recovering from Hurricane Helene, any impacts that will disrupt recovery efforts are significant. Please monitor forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center, your local National Weather Service office (especially if you are in NWS Jacksonville's area), and reliable media outlets this week.
Will Lanxton
Meteorologist
GEMA/HS
