Centre for Risk Analysis

19/06/2026

"Centre for Risk Analysis executive director Chris Hattingh warned a national shutdown on June 30 would severely disrupt the informal trade networks that sustain low-income townships, compounding existing energy and logistics crises."

CRA clients get exclusive analysis on SA's immigration problem in our latest briefings.

Contact Chris Hattingh: [email protected]

19/06/2026

National Treasury's 1.6% GDP forecast is now the optimistic ceiling. The CRA's base case sits between 1.3% and 1.6%, with the lower end the more likely outcome if Hormuz relief lags.

Our new Strategic Intelligence Briefing, Narrow Margins: Growth, the GNU, and a Fragile Truce, sets out the full scenario range, what's driving divergence, and what it means for planning.

The CRA is offering an exclusive executive briefing unpacking:
🔹 Why the 17 June Hormuz deal shifts the scenario range and what a slow reopening means
🔹 How GNU fragility intersects with the growth outlook across the scenario set
🔹 What the different scenarios mean for investment decisions, cost structures, and risk exposure

Available for strategy sessions, board discussions, breakaways & conferences.

Is your business prepared? Contact the Chris Hattingh: [email protected]

19/06/2026

The CRA cautions against reading directional improvement as structural resolution. Many of the impediments to better performance – Transnet’s labour constraints, electricity supply risk at port facilities, aging crane equipment, and road and rail bottlenecks feeding the ports – remain in place, writes CRA Executive Director Chris Hattingh.

CRA clients get exclusive analysis on SA's infrastructure and the risks it poses to businesses.

Contact Chris Hattingh: [email protected]

19/06/2026

⚠️ South Africa's anti-immigrant campaign has moved from the fringes to the centre of mainstream politics months before the 4 November local government elections.

The 30 June deadline has organised backing. The CRA's latest briefing identifies who is driving it, how it secured mainstream cover, and why it marks the opening of a sustained political phase.

The CRA is offering exclusive executive briefings unpacking:

🔹 Who is driving the campaign and how it gained political cover

🔹 Which sectors and logistics corridors face direct operational exposure

🔹 What the different scenarios mean for stability, supply chains and investment decisions

Available for strategy sessions, board discussions, breakaways & conferences.

Is your business prepared? Contact Ofentse Davhie: [email protected]

18/06/2026

The CRA has released its latest Survey chapter on business and infrastructure in South Africa. It covers registered and listed companies, entrepreneurship and business confidence, mining attractiveness and economic freedom, electricity and water, and passenger transport and freight.

CRA clients get exclusive analysis on SA's business and infrastructure landscape.

Contact Chris Hattingh to arrange a briefing: [email protected]

18/06/2026

On 30 June, the primary targets are foreign-owned retail in townships and CBD corridors across Johannesburg, Tshwane, Durban, eThekwini, and Cape Town. The threat has been made explicitly.

Whether it materialises depends on a causal model the CRA has now mapped in full. In this condensed strategic intelligence briefing, Research Associate Ofentse Davhie breaks down the conditions, the trigger mechanisms, and which businesses face direct exposure.

If you operate in any of those cities, this briefing is worth 30 minutes of your time.

Read more:

Ofentse Davhie joins Chris Hattingh to unpack South Africa's immigr...

18/06/2026

“The rate of monthly increase almost halved – from 1.1% in April to 0.7% in May,” says Chris Hattingh, executive director at the Centre for Risk Analysis. “If the latest print confirms the SARB’s own May forecast of 4.4% average for the year, that says: ‘We’re on the right track.'"

CRA clients get exclusive analysis on the Reserve Bank's decision-making.

Contact Chris Hattingh: [email protected]

18/06/2026

Poor conditions alone don't cause xenophobic violence. If they did, it would happen everywhere at once. It doesn't.

The CRA's latest briefing explains why violence clusters in Gauteng, KZN, and the Western Cape, what the actual trigger mechanism is, and how to assess whether your business sits inside the risk perimeter for 30 June.

Ofentse Davhie walks through the data, the sociology, and the operational implications in under 30 minutes.

Watch here:

Ofentse Davhie joins Chris Hattingh to unpack South Africa's immigr...

18/06/2026

⚠️ The US-Iran conflict is a direct threat to South Africa's fuel supply, energy costs, and economic stability.

As Gulf tensions escalate, SA businesses can't afford to be caught off guard.

The CRA is offering exclusive executive briefings unpacking:

🔹 How the conflict is disrupting global oil markets

🔹 What this means for SA fuel prices, load-shedding & supply chains

🔹 How to scenario-plan and reduce your business's exposure

Available for strategy sessions, board discussions, breakaways & conferences.

Is your business prepared? Contact Chris Hattingh: [email protected]

17/06/2026

South Africa’s vital signs are in. Is your business ready for what they reveal?

Most leadership teams are making 2026 decisions based on outdated assumptions. The CRA’s Pulse of the Nation briefing gives your executive team the unfiltered picture:

🔴 The real state of the economy — beyond the headlines

⚠️ The 3 critical risks your business must navigate this year

🗳️ Local Government Elections - who wins, and what it means for your sector

This isn’t a report you read. It’s a live, tailored briefing delivered directly to your leadership team - with scenario planning built in.

Limited dates available.

👉 Book your session: [email protected]